705
FXUS61 KBGM 290642
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through
Wednesday evening as a slow moving upper level disturbance
moves through the area. Drier conditions will return Thursday,
with a warming trend for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
600 PM Update...
Small adjustments made to forecast based on radar and near-term
model trends as well as temperature observations. Main cluster
of showers-thunder has congealed over the Wyoming Valley-
Poconos PA to Catskills NY. A smaller batch can be found over
the northern Finger Lakes. With loss of diurnal heating and thus
waning instability we will see the isolated lightning drop down
quickly the next couple hours as well as a general diminishing
trend in the shower coverage.

Previous discussion...
A weak cold front will push southward through Central NY and NE
PA through tonight. Scattered showers and small thunderstorms
will continue through this evening before that front pushes
southward, decreasing chances for showers but increasing cloud
cover over the area. The front will linger just south of NE PA
through Wednesday. Temperatures will struggle to break 70
degrees tomorrow with mostly cloudy skies. Current gusty winds
will die down once that front moves through tonight.

Chances for showers and storms increase again Wednesday
afternoon mainly in NE PA with the front lingering just south of
NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
240 AM update...

High pressure will be in control for the end of the work week,
giving us quiet conditions. With northerly flow and mostly clear
skies Thursday night, good radiational cooling should take place and
lead to temperatures cooler than most guidance. The NBM Tenth
Percentile was favored for temperatures, lows will be in the upper
30s to low 40s. Temperatures begin to trend warm Friday as heights
increase with a ridge building into the region. Highs will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Breezy conditions are expected under a tight
pressure gradient as peak gusts up to 20 mph possible. Overnight
lows Friday will be in the 40s. Despite skies being clear once again
Friday night, this forecast favored NBM guidance for now as a warmer
air mass continues to work its way into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
240 AM update...

The first half the weekend starts out dry but then a weak
disturbance moves in by Sunday. Chances for showers are low, in fact
just slight chance as this system will have to overcome the drier
air over the region. Weak instability could also support isolated
afternoon thunderstorms. This weak shortwave will support spotty
showers into Monday as well. A brief break is expected as another
upper ridge builds into the region. Then a weak wave embedded in the
ridge will kick off additional spotty showers on Tuesday. As with
past updates, there remains uncertainty during the early portion of
the week, especially with coverage of showers. None of the days look
like a wash out at this point though.

Temperatures will continue to slowly climb to above average during
the first half of the first week of June. Highs will range from the
70s to low 80s on Saturday but 80s will be widespread by Tuesday.
The cool nights in the 40s come to an end this forecast period as
lows in the 60s become possible by Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lower clouds, with plenty of holes, are generally in place
across the Twin Tiers and NEPA, while drier air has eroded the
lower clouds further north. However, another weak disturbance
will bring a few light showers into north-central NY over the
next hours, and ceilings will likely lower again in their wake.
Still, went more optimistic than guidance through the overnight
hours.

Convective showers and isolated thunder will again develop late
this morning into the afternoon hours across the Southern Tier
of NY, sliding south into PA during the later afternoon. Brief
MVFR visbys will be possible in heavier showers.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Sunday...Quiet pattern with mainly
VFR. Small chance of a shower or storm/brief restriction
Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL/MDP
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MDP/MPH