254
FXUS61 KBGM 301327
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
927 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool but otherwise fine day is expected across the region.
Tonight will get quite chilly, with lows dipping into the middle
to upper 30s in places. Dry conditions and a steady warming
trend will commence Friday and Saturday. Except for a few
showers in western areas Sunday, quiet and warm weather will
continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
925 AM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Updated current
temperatures with a blend of observations and latest guidance.
The challenge of the day will be assessing the chances for frost
tonight. With current guidance showing unfavorable temperatures
for frost, this morning`s low temperatures were slightly cooler
in some higher terrain areas. With calm winds and clear skies
tonight, we`re prime for radiational cooling again, which
increases chances for slightly lower minimum temperatures
overnight tonight, but chances are still low, and our confidence
of frost development is also low at this time. We`ll keep
monitoring changes in guidance through the day for the afternoon
update.


410 AM Update...

Steady rain continues across Sullivan and Pike Counties early
this morning, but the well-defined back edge of rain will push
east of the area shortly after daybreak (roughly 7 AM to clear
the whole CWA).

Farther west, clearing skies and rapidly dropping temps have
allowed for valley fog to develop south of the Finger Lakes,
especially Steuben and Chemung Counties. More could work its way
east into Tioga and Broome Counties before dawn, though time is
running short for any dense fog to develop.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail today, but temperatures will
still remain on the cooler side, with mid to upper-60s common,
though Scranton and perhaps Syracuse could push the 70 degree
mark. Continued drier conditions, clear skies, and light winds
will lead to strong radiational cooling Thursday night into
Friday morning. We`ve managed to drop to at least 41 at Ithaca
and Cortland so far this morning, and conditions look more
favorable for cooling tonight. Expect upper-30s to lower-40s for
lows tonight, with a few spots dropping into the mid-30s.
There`s slight chance for frost, especially Delaware County, but
will let the day shift scrutinize the risk some more before
considering headlines. Valley fog is also likely to develop
again and be a little more widespread late tonight into Friday
morning.

Friday itself looks to be mostly sunny with temperatures
beginning to tick upwards, back to the 70s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM update...

A ridge of high pressure moves into the region Friday night into
Saturday. This will lead to quiet conditions through at least
Saturday night. With heights increasing and flow becoming westerly,
temperatures will trend warmer from the cool end of the work week.
Clear skies should allow for good radiational cooling Friday night,
so this forecast update leaned heavily toward the NBM tenth
percentile. This results in forecasted lows in the 40s. Other than
right at the surface, soundings look too dry for fog to develop even
with light winds forecasted. Temperatures will climb into the 70s on
Saturday. Some valley locations could just exceed 80. Skies will be
sunny as well, so expect a pleasant start to the weekend. With a
much warmer air mass over the region and increasing sky cover,
temperatures will only fall into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
325 AM update...

The ridge begins to move east Sunday with the surface high pressure
moving out to sea. A weak shortwave is not far behind and will bring
a low chance for showers across most of the region during the
daytime hours on Sunday. Despite another ridge of high pressure
building into the region by Monday, weak forcing could kick off
isolated showers. Moisture is quite limited though, especially at
the surface, so if anything can develop, it`s possible it just ends
up being just sprinkles or even virga. After Monday, the forecast
becomes a bit more uncertain. Deterministic model guidance has
trended drier with the upper ridge remaining over the region at
least through Tuesday. Ensemble guidance still keeps some rain
chances around. While NBM was initially favored, PoPs were reduced
below guidance. A low pressure system moves into the northern Great
Lakes region by midweek. This will likely be the next system to
impact the region with more widespread showers. But prior to that,
some showers could develop out ahead of this system on Wednesday,
giving us yet another day of chance PoPs.

With cloudy skies and showers on Sunday, temperatures will dip
slightly from the first half of the weekend, only maxing out in the
70s. After that, temperatures warm back up into the upper 70s and
low 80s as 500mb heights increase with the ridge building into the
region. The natural AC during the overnight hours gets turned up as
well throughout this period. Lows will go from the 50s this weekend
to 60s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Valley fog/stratus at ELM will dissipate between 12Z and 14Z.
Otherwise, from mid morning, VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the TAF period across the region. Drier air will
work into the area today, but with temperatures expected to
become quite chilly overnight, there`s still the possibility of
some valley fog, including at ELM, before dawn Friday.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...Quiet pattern with mainly VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Small chance of a shower or storm/brief
restriction Sunday and Monday afternoon.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...KL/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPH