Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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725 FXUS61 KBGM 271906 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 306 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong system will bring locally heavy rain and a chance for thunderstorms today. A few storms may become severe this afternoon and evening. Additional scattered showers will linger through midweek, with drier conditions expected towards the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A band of N to S rain is currently pushing east of I-81. This line has been very underwhelming as the perceived instability we thought was developing ahead of it during the morning did not materialize. Winds aloft were strong enough to be dragged down to the surface with the heavy showers that have developed, but it seems a stable layer remains at the surface, keeping severe weather from developing. Low level shear is very strong across the area, with 0-3km shear near 45kts, so even with no instability for thunderstorms, we will see some rotation along the line that could spawn some showernados. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 9pm as another round of development is expected later this afternoon. Some clearing behind this first batch of showers should keep CAPE values between 500 and 1000 j/kg combined with shear values above 30kts and lift from a shortwave moving through the region should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Storms should dissipate by late evening, followed by another round of isolated showers moving through ahead of a weak cold front. Given the lack of convectively driven downpours, flooding chances have diminished across most of the area. The Catskills and Poconos still have a chance for isolated flash flooding across more flashy basins if we can get another round of heavy showers move over the area later this evening. Temps tonight will be in the 50s, with dewpoints in the 50s so it will feel a little muggy out. Tuesday will see another round of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave rotates through the area from the Ohio River Valley. WNW flow will advect in some cooler temps aloft, increasing lapse rates while partly sunny skies will bring some weak instability to the area. Showers will be diurnal, popping up in the early afternoon and dissipating during the early evening hours. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1020 AM Update... Forecast was completed earlier than usual due to operations being focused on event-at-hand. Little change from what was already discussed below, other than to linger rain chances longer Tuesday evening for Central NY. Previous discussion... A shortwave embedded in the long wave upper trough overhead will be moving away from the area Tuesday night, and shower or thunderstorm activity across CNY will taper off. Lows Tuesday night range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Another shortwave will dive southeastward toward the area Wednesday enhancing the cooler, northwest flow over the region. High temperatures will mainly be in the 60s with the Wyoming Valley perhaps squeaking out 70 degrees. There is some uncertainty with regards to the shower coverage this day with the main lobe of energy with the shortwave looking to pass by to the south. This would limit showers over CNY Wednesday but lead to a higher chance over NE PA. PoPs were lowered some from NBM across CNY to reflect this idea. This disturbance is expected to push off to the east Wednesday night and drier, colder air filters in dropping low temperatures into the 40s. Some of the highest elevations are expected to dip back into the low 40s. Yet another shortwave looks to drop south out of Canada on Thursday, but with the drier air in place and this feature projected to pass by to our south and west, any showers look isolated in nature. It will remain cool with highs again generally in the 60s and overnight lows falling back well into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1020 AM Update... Forecast was completed earlier than usual due to operations being focused on event-at-hand. Little change from what was already discussed below for what appears to be a mainly dry period with temperatures trending from slightly below average initially to near average over the weekend. Previous discussion... Surface high pressure builds in from the west on Friday and the long wave upper trough finally moves off the coast by the start of the weekend. Ridging builds in at the upper levels and as a result, a pretty nice weekend looks to be in store with largely dry conditions. High temperatures will be on the rise going from the 60s to near 70 degrees on Friday to the mid and upper 70s by the time Sunday rolls around. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move through the area, impacting all terminals through the evening hours. AVP and BGM have the best chance to see IFR visby during the heaviest thunderstorms this afternoon. ELM/ITH/SYR/RME will see rain showers with this first batch of rain, with chances for thunderstorm development later this afternoon. All terminals should see tempo MVFR conditions during this second batch as showers and storms will be more isolated. A third batch of showers and storms are expected later this evening, but confidence in them impacting terminals was too low to include in this set of TAFs. Rain is expected to clear out by 4-6z, with calm conditions through the morning hours. More rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in restrictions is low at this time. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...DK/MDP LONG TERM...DK/MDP AVIATION...JTC