Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 200923
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
423 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region, gradually shifting
showers to mainly north of the area, with drier conditions
especially this afternoon through Wednesday morning. The warm
front will usher in near record warmth today through Wednesday.
However, a cold front will bring a return of showers late
Wednesday into Thursday, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 AM Update...
Record or near record warmth is anticipated for the next couple
of days, which of course will result in significant snowmelt
where it still exists. Rain in Central New York will gradually
shift north of the area later today through tonight, but another
batch of showers is expected Wednesday, mainly in the
afternoon-early evening with a passing cold front.

Main concern is for the potential of localized flooding in
Oneida County due to combination of rain and snowmelt. About a
half inch to one inch of rain has already occurred in the
county, especially the north half. An additional few to several
tenths of an inch are possible today from occasional showers
passing through as the responsible warm front lifts north. Most
additional rain will occur this morning. By itself, the amount
of rain is not much of a problem, but of course there is still
water stored in remaining snowpack, especially in northern
Oneida County where pockets of 1-5 inches of stored water
remain according to NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center modeled snow water equivalent. As warm air surges
northward today through Wednesday, much of this water will be
released to run off into area creeks and streams which will
already be elevated from rainfall. Any ice jams will also need
to be very closely monitored, such as the one on Fish Creek
between Taberg and Sylvan Beach. Possible flooding issues will
be mainly in Northern Oneida County, but the Flood Watch was
expanded to include the county in general. This was to take into
account any waterways that drain from northern Oneida County
into central parts of the county including Fish Creek.

The other issue is locally dense fog especially across the
Poconos- Catskills. Late last evening, we hoisted a Dense Fog
Advisory for Luzerne-Lackawanna-Wayne-Pike-Sullivan-Delaware
counties, as visibilities plummeted in the wake of rainfall
followed by decreasing clouds aloft. South-southeast low level
flow and moisture from earlier rainfall, in many cases over
melting of lingering snowpack, has socked in much of the
Poconos-Catskills with low stratus-fog. Despite strong warm air
advection, it will take until mid morning for better mixing to
break up the fog. Visibility will remain below a quarter mile at
times, so exercise caution especially if driving at higher
elevations such as the PA turnpike through the Pocono Plateau.

Other than the localized flooding and fog issues noted above, the
main story will be very warm temperatures now through
Wednesday. As of 3 AM readings range from mid 30s to upper 40s;
despite how mild that is, it is representative of a skin deep
relatively cool layer that will mix out later today. 850mb
temperatures are already around +10C/50F and will go up a bit
more later today through midday Wednesday. Other than upper 50s
for higher elevations of northern Oneida/Catskill peaks,
widespread 60s are expected for highs both today and Wednesday.
Lower elevations of the Finger Lakes-Central Twin Tiers could
even get near 70 degrees today; and same case for parts of
Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY on Wednesday. Daily record highs
today are 65 degrees set in 1930 for both Syracuse and Avoca (it
will be a close call today) and 58 set in 2016 for Binghamton
airport which are forecast cracks by 4 degrees. By the way, for
those paying close attention; the Syracuse and Avoca daily
records that noted here in the AFD last night were incorrect.
Wednesday records are as follows: AVP 67/1953, SYR 65/1997, and
BGM 61/1953. The forecast is within a degree of all 3 sites for
highs Wednesday. A cold front will pass through in the afternoon
to put an end to the near record temperatures, but it will do so
with limited moisture. Rain amounts from showers are only
expected to be around a tenth of an inch or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM update...

Active weather continues with multiple frontal passages.

Wednesday night cold air advection and showers behind a cold front.
Showers will be isolated to scattered with very low amounts of under
a tenth of an inch. Precip type starts as rain then changes to snow
in NY as temperatures there drop to around 30. The next wave moves
northeast into the area Thursday morning. Precipitation starts as
snow then changes to rain or a mix as temperatures  rise into the
upper 30s to around 40. With this wave being like a warm front there
is a small chance that a wedge of above freezing air aloft could
create sleet or freezing rain Thursday. A better chance of mixed
precipitation will be late Thursday night into Friday morning with a
warm front lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley. Snow, sleet, and
freezing rain amounts will be light.  Low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s before warming into the 40s Friday afternoon. This
system exits Friday night pushing a cold front south of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 am update...

Active weather continues with another areas of precipitation
moving through this period. Temperatures remain above normal but
cool enough for some snow or a mix at times.

Friday night and Saturday will have little precipitation mostly
of isolated rain showers with most temperatures above freezing.
Highs 45 to 50 both Saturday and Sunday. Another batch of
mostly rain moves in Saturday night and lasts into Sunday ahead
of an occluded front that goes through our area late Sunday.
Only slightly cooler Sunday night and Monday as the upper level
ridge holds over the western Atlantic. Lows around freezing
followed by more highs in the 40s. Monday should be dry with
high pressure from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complicated and challenging aviation forecast in the near term,
complete with widespread LLWS early this morning. A warm front
brought rain to the area which has shifted to mainly KSYR-KRME.
However, moisture from that rainfall and loss of higher level
clouds will allow the abundant near surface moisture to develop
fog and low stratus for restrictions at KAVP-KELM-KBGM. This
will all be battling south- southwest flow from warmer air
pushing into the region, so the restrictions will fluctuate
considerably. KELM will be around airport mins at times through
about 10Z, whereas KAVP-BGM will have IFR or worse ceiling in-
and-out through the night. Stout southwesterly low level jet of
35-50 knots, versus much lighter surface winds, will keep LLWS
going through much of morning for all terminals. In the case of
KRME, with localized east-southeast wind at the surface, LLWS
will remain through the whole TAF period. The rest of the
terminals will have a midday break in LLWS as better mixing
occurs, only to have it return this evening. Along with the
better mixing, significant improvement will occur as ceiling
lift into high end MVFR or VFR late morning through afternoon.
Fuel alternate ceiling is expected to redevelop late evening for
KRME, but otherwise only minor restrictions at worst, if not
all VFR, is anticipated for the other terminals.

Outlook...
Late Tuesday night through mid day Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of restrictions
and rain showers. Rain may mix with snow late Wednesday night-
Thursday morning for the NY terminals.

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions/rain showers likely,
especially Friday-Friday night. Snow may be mixed in at times
for the NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ040-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ057-062.
     Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP


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