Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 242321
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
621 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will pull warm air and a few showers into NY and
PA toward sunrise on Saturday. A cold front behind the storm
will set off light lake effect snow showers and flurries for
Sunday, before milder air returns for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
620 pm update...
Quiet weather continues this evening, with no significant
changes made to the forecast.

2 PM update...

The models continue to trend toward lighter precipitation and
less coverage on Saturday. The forecast area will remain dry
through early morning, then scattered rain shower activity will
work across the region from west-to-east during the late morning
and afternoon. With less precipitation expected temperatures
are now forecast to be a degree or two warmer than originally
thought, with maximums between 45 and 50.

Winds will shift to WNW behind the cold front Saturday night.
Lake flow will develop (290-300 degrees shifting toward 320
degrees late) with 850 MB temperatures dropping to around -9C.

This will create an unstable atmosphere between the lake and 850
mb, but moisture is limited and the inversion is quick to
descend.

A general half-inch to 1.5 inches of snow will fall by early
Sunday morning downwind of Lake Ontario.

1115 AM update...

Skies have cleared nicely across the region and temperatures are
quickly climbing, with the high elevation BGM station already
sitting at 40 degrees.

We amended temperatures slightly for today. Otherwise the
forecast is in great shape. Light winds and plenty of sun are
expected for the remainder of this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Sunday morning the upper level trough axis swings across NY
and PA as strong low-level cold air advection continues on a
310 to 325 degree flow. 850mb temperatures will be around -8 to
-10C by 12z Sunday which leads to a 20C or so Lake Ontario
 temperature to 850 mb temperature differential. This by itself
 is decent instability for lake effect snow. Therefore, snow
 showers are likely across the eastern Finger Lakes and upper
 Susquehanna region in Central NY early Sunday morning. Chance
 PoPs for snow showers will extend down along the NY/PA border
 in Broome/Delaware counties and even into the far northern
 Poconos. The favored locations in Central NY could see up to 1
 inch of snow Sunday morning...with just a light dusting
 possible elsewhere. High temperatures on Sunday will only
 recover into the 30s for most locations. There will also be
 breezy northwest winds between 15-25 mph, creating windchills
 in the 20s and lower 30s through the day. By Sunday afternoon
 and evening a shortwave ridge builds over the area...allowing
 the lake snow showers to quickly taper to flurries and end.
 Clouds may even break for some sun late in the afternoon,
 especially over NE PA. Sunday night a fast moving, weak clipper
 system will move by to the north. This will bring additional
 chance for snow showers across mainly the northern portion of
 the forecast area. There will be some likely PoPs for snow
 showers mainly in Oneida county. QPF amounts look rather
 light...generally under a tenth of an inch. This should equate
 to only light snowfall amounts, with perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inches
 along and north of the NY Thruway. Some lake enhancement will
 develop in these same areas as 850mb temperatures fall to
 around -8C early Monday AM. This trough/clipper system quickly
 moves east and out the area later on Monday. This will allow
 for conditions to dry out Monday afternoon areawide. 500mb
 heights continue to rise and high temperatures should range
 from 35-45 Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure builds across all of NY and PA Monday
night through Tuesday. This will keep the CWA dry with warming
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to
mid-50s...well above average. A very weak, decaying frontal
boundary skirts by to the north Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning. This could bring at least some increasing
cloud cover and perhaps a few light rain showers to far northern
Central NY. Behind this front temperatures will only cool very
slightly...and much of the forecast area should remain dry
Wednesday afternoon/evening. A weak upper level disturbance then
moves through later Wednesday night and Thursday in the
southwesterly flow out ahead of a larger approaching trough.
This first weaker system will bring a slight chance of mainly
rain showers to the western portion of the area Wednesday night
and Thursday. The latest model guidance is in fairly good
agreement that a stronger upper level trough and associated
frontal system will then move through the area Thursday into
Friday...bringing higher PoPs/QPF...precip type will be mainly
rain to start. As colder air infiltrates behind the front by
Friday and Friday night the precip will then likely begin to
transition over to snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather with VFR conditions will continue through tonight
with cloud cover increasing and ceilings lowering to MVFR by the
late morning hours. A cold front will bring in a few light rain
showers Saturday afternoon with lower ceilings to possibly fuel
alternate required levels. Also, still expecting the potential
for LLWS overnight at KITH, KBGM, KELM, and KSYR.

Outlook...

Saturday night into Monday...Lake effect snow showers likely
causing at least some restrictions, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Most of Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJT/DJP


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