Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281043
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
643 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mainly dry day can be expected for today before the next low
pressure system arrives with showers for tonight lasting into
Monday. A generally unsettled pattern will persist through the
week due to the system`s upper level low lingering over the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM...An area of low stratus continues to persist across much
of the forecast area with some clearing occurring around the
periphery of the region through the lake plain. Where this
clearing has occurred, areas of fog have developed. Heading
through the next several hours, don`t expect much further
erosion of the stratus so fog should remain mainly confined to
the lake plain region.

Heading into the day today, expect low stratus and fog to
finally burn off by mid morning. This will give way to a brief
period of some sunshine before clouds increase again in the
afternoon ahead of the next system. The main area of precip
associated with this next low pressure system should hold off
until the evening however forecast guidance indicates there may
be some isolated to scattered pop up showers or storms that form
by late afternoon over the western southern tier into the lake
plain so we introduce low chance POPs by this time. Temps will
be warmer with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.

Tonight, widespread rain/showers move in west to east through
the evening ahead of a low pressure system tracking into
Ontario. There will be some elevated instability so some thunder
will be possible as well. Expect the rain/showers to continue
overnight and it could even fall briefly moderate to heavy in a
few spots as the system will be supported by fairly good upper
level jet dynamics, and a rich transport of moisture from the
south with PWATs maxing out around 1.5 inches.

For Monday, the day begins wet as showers continue into the
morning however the system looks to be fairly progressive with
showers ending by midday for areas west of I-81 and tapering off
through the afternoon for areas to the east. Some differences in
how fast precip ends with the GEM Regional being the slowest
and the NAM the fastest. In any event, precip looks to be out of
all areas by around 4 pm so a mainly dry finish to the day
expected. Highs will range from the 60s over the east where
clouds/showers linger longest to the mid 70s over the lake plain
where some afternoon sunshine will break out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
335 am update...
Main concerns in the short term remain focused around the potential
for showers and storms through the day Tuesday, and another round of
weak convection Wednesday afternoon.

Large upper low will rotate slowly ewd through ern Canada Monday
night through Wednesday with a series of embedded short waves
sweeping across NY and nrn PA during this time. The first wave will
arrive early Tuesday morning, with a narrow corridor of moisture
associated with it and a limited amount of elevated instability to
aid in the development of convective showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms. The broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue Tuesday
afternoon, and when combined with afternoon diurnal heating,
boundary layer mixing and steepening lapse rates, the threat for
additional...more widespread...showers and storms will exist over
much of the region through the afternoon into the evening. Brief
heavy rain and lightning will be the main threat. Severe weather is
not anticipated. As much as a quarter of an inch is possible.

Will likely see brief ridging behind this newd moving front Tue
night which will lead to generally quiet weather conditions into
Wednesday morning. The next upper wave will drop in from the nw
during the day Wednesday, but not have as much moisture to work
with, along with a slightly more stable air mass. So, the threat for
showers and storms will be less. Can`t rule out isolated weak
thunderstorms Wed afternoon/evening as the boundary layer
destabilizes though.

Temperatures will hover around average early this week with
highs in the upper 60s and lower/mid 70s...and overnight lows in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
335 am update...
A few showers may linger across the region Wednesday night, but the
overall chances for rain will be less through the overnight hours.
Yet another s/w will drop in from the n/nw on Thursday and trigger a
few showers through the afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to
be light if anything at all. A more developed cold front drops in
from the north on Friday with additional chances for showers and
possibly a few storms. There appears to be quite a bit of
uncertainty going into the weekend, so will handle the forecast with
slight chance pops at this time. Model trends and differences among
individual deterministic runs are all over the map with solutions.
Will await further guidance to make any significant changes.

Temperatures remain on the slightly cooler side late this week with
highs in the 60s...near 70, and overnight lows in the 40s to near
50.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog will be starting to lift for KRME by 12z though we keep a
tempo group for half mile visbys until 13z. Expect restrictions
here to lift to VFR by 14z. For the remaining TAF sites, less
clearing occurred than expected so no fog this morning and just
VFR through the day with a scattered to broken deck around
around 5 k ft. A low pressure system will arrive late this
evening west to east bringing showers with mostly MVFR
restrictions.

Light and variable winds become S/SE 5-10 knots by later this
morning continuing through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and perhaps thunder.
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT/RRM
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ/PCF



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