780
FXUS61 KBGM 281045
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through
Wednesday as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through
the area. Drier conditions will return Thursday, with a warming
trend for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 AM Update...

Some patchy fog has developed in areas with clear patches,
mainly along the upper Susquehanna down into valleys through the
Catskills and Poconos. Elsewhere, lower cloud cover is beginning
to move in to western parts of the CWA. Expect mostly cloudy
conditions to prevail through the day, with a pair of shortwave
troughs expected to bring scattered to numerous showers and the
odd thunderstorm to the area from mid-morning through the
evening hours.

A weak cold front will settle south of the area Wednesday, but
additional rounds of showers are expected to redevelop Wednesday
afternoon. Models have been trending a little further south with
the precip, especially the higher res guidance. Trimmed back
PoPs across northern portions of the area for now, with showers
most prevalent south of the NY/PA line.

With the lagging trough hanging over the area, temperatures will
be on the cooler side, with highs in the mid-60s to near 70 in
Central NY today, and up to the middle-70s in the Wyoming Valley
of PA. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

A frontal system will slowly exit the region Wednesday night through
Thursday. Showers are expected from the Southern Tier and areas
south into NEPA and the Catskills. Instability and shear will be
quite limited, so thunder chances were greatly reduced. A slight
chance for thunderstorms was kept for the Wyoming Valley and Poconos
Wednesday night. An upper trough sweeps through late in the day
Thursday and pushes showers out of the region Thursday night. High
pressure and drier conditions build into the region behind the
departing trough.

Lows both nights will be in the 40s with some locations in the lower
elevations potentially staying the 50s. Highs on Thursday will be in
the 60s and low 70s as a cool air mass remains overhead, though
areas that stay rain free and mostly sunny could exceed what is
forecasted.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM Update...

After a week filled with multiple rounds of showers, the week comes
to an end with dry conditions. These quiet conditions will stick
around through the start of the weekend as high pressure remains
over the region. There is a slight chance for showers for most of
Sunday as a warm front lifts into the region. Heading into early
next week, there is some uncertainty. Most deterministic guidance
has a dry Monday with high pressure returning. Then showers return
Monday night as the next system moves in. Ensemble guidance favors
shower chances for Monday. If the current trend in deterministic
guidance continues, there will likely be a break in showers between
Sunday night and Monday night. Given the uncertainty, NBM guidance
was favored for PoPs during this forecast period.

Summer-like temperatures will return early next week. While
temperatures at the start of this period will max out in the 70s,
widespread 80s return by Monday. The lows will follow a similar
trend, going from 40s to 60s during this stretch.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lower clouds will overspread the region this morning, with
ceilings gradually lowering to MVFR, mainly north of the Twin
Tiers. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two
will develop through the late morning into the evening hours,
mainly in Central NY, with brief periods of fuel alt-level
ceilings possible.

Ceilings will trend lower overnight, with fuel alt conditions
over most of Central NY, and MVFR working into NE PA. Ceilings
may drop to IFR at ITH late tonight at ITH in the wake of a
weak cold front, as winds shift to the NW.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly across the Twin Tiers southward
into PA. Valley fog possible Wednesday night.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPH