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000
FXUS61 KBGM 210714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A very much needed stretch of dry weather begins today,
although temperatures will be on the cool side through
tomorrow. Dry weather remains through Tuesday with the next
storm system moving in Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
0245 AM Update...

Quiet conditions over the region with some lake clouds filtering
in from the west. Temperatures have mostly fallen into the mid
to upper 30s across the area, with Elmira and Syracuse as warm
spots with temps in the low 40s. Clouds should continue to
stream off the lakes overnight, covering most of the the area
west of I-81. This should keep temps a few degrees warmer than
guidance suggests as it is not picking up on the lake clouds and
showing better chances for radiational cooling. Lows should be a
few degrees cooler than current temps, bottoming out in the 30s
for most.

Continued NW flow today will keep the cool Canadian airmass
overhead. Temperatures will be cool, with most places seeing mid
to upper 40s as highs. Warmer valleys will hit the low 50s but
with dry air and winds picking up in the afternoon, it will feel
much cooler than that. Models show very dry air in the boundary
later, with inverted V soundings across the region. This will
help transport some gusty winds down to the surface, especially
north of the Southern Tier, with sustained WNW winds 10-15mph
gusting up to 25mph. Surface moisture will be low, with
dewpoints in the mid 20s for most of the day. Had to blend in
some drier guidance from the RGEM and CONShort to get dewpoints
lower as NBM, as usual, was too moist. Another shortwave will
pass over the region during the afternoon hours, but with a lack
of moisture, precipitation is not expected. Behind the
shortwave, winds shift to more NWerly, continuing to push in the
cold airmass from Canada. With high pressure and this wind
direction, fetch across the lakes will be too low to generate
expansive cloud cover. This should allow temps to fall a few
degrees colder than Sat night, bottoming out in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

Monday will be cool but pleasant, with mostly clear skies and
light winds thanks to a high pressure center moving overhead.
Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s for most of the region.
Dewpoints again were too high in the initial NBM guidance, so
RGEM and CONShort was used, which dropped values into the upper
teens to low 20s across the region, which matched up better with
what model soundings are showing.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
238 PM Update...

Quiet/dry weather will prevail on Monday with zonal flow aloft
and seasonal temperatures. A weak shortwave trough will move
across northern NY Tuesday as a a deeper trough digs south over
the upper Great Lakes. Rain showers associated with the northern
system look to stay just north of the region, keeping the
daylight hours of Tuesday dry, though southwest winds will be a
little on the breezy side in response to deepening low pressure
over western Quebec. This will help advect in some warmer
temperatures, with highs rising from the low/mid-50s on Monday
to the low/mid-60s on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
238 PM Update

Rain chances will increase later Tuesday night and especially
during the day Wednesday as the deeper shortwave trough rolls
through the area along with an associated cold front. The GFS
continues to show a third shortwave trough dropping in and
phasing with the second one, dragging in some colder air in the
process for Wednesday night. GFS Ensemble 2m temps suggest good
agreement with this scenario, while the ECMWF ensembles show
more of a spread. Dropped temperatures slightly Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as the ECMWF ensembles appear to be
nudging in the cooler direction. This would bring the potential
for a few wrap-around snow showers late Wed into early Thu,
though any accumulations/impacts would be minimal.

A warming trend is most favored Friday and heading into next
weekend. Shower chances look to increase on Saturday, though
with strong high pressure off the east coast, this could well
trend slower over time.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
TAF period.

WNW winds from 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts return for the
late morning through the afternoon. Winds lighten up in the
evening hours.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JTC