140
FXUS61 KBGM 230740
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
340 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move across the area overnight
leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms into Thursday.
There will be a brief break Friday before the next system brings
another round of showers and thunderstorms to start the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

Some thunderstorms remain present but the severe threat has
diminished across CNY. The watch was cancelled for all NY
counties, but does remain for the counties that it was issued
for in NEPA. Another line of storms has swept across PA and is
now moving into the region. PoPs were updated based on current
radar activity. The CAMs are still struggling but the HREF, NBM,
and some manual edits seemed to come up with a reasonable
solution over the next few hours.

Temperatures have cooled significantly after the storms passed
through. Most are now in the 70s. Hourly temps and dewpts were
touched up to better reflect the latest observations. The rest
of the forecast was doing well and needed little change at this
time.

320 PM Update...

A pre-frontal trough has kicked off scattered showers and storms
just west of the region. Some pop-up convection has been brief in
the region. Instability and shear will likely increase as the cap
continues to erode throughout the afternoon. This would leave the
door open for isolated to scattered severe storms with wind being
the main threat. The uncertainty lies with the shear, which is only
modeled at 20 to 25 kts. This may be just enough to for severe
storms but they should be relatively short-lived. With CAMs not
handling this situation well, PoPs were made to be a ahead of the
timing shown in guidance. Despite having uncertainty with this messy
situation, a watch was issued based on earlier activity seen further
west and the potential for additional severe storms based on higher
surface-based instability.

By the late evening hours, the potential for severe storms will
diminish. The delayed cold front will move into the region from the
northwest tonight. This boundary will kick off additional scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. With the added moisture, light
winds, and fairly low dew point depressions, patchy valley fog may
develop. In other areas, low stratus may also be possible.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight.

With the front stretched across the southern portions of the region
by Thursday morning, a weak disturbance will ride this front. This
will help keep showers going across portions of NEPA and the
Catskills through most of the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as instability and shear will also be present. High
pressure builds in behind this frontal boundary, leading to a quiet,
partly cloudy afternoon across the region. The cold front brings
relief from the heat we have seen the last couple of days highs will
only be in mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions will continue
overnight with temps falling into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 AM Update...

High pressure in control at the surface and weak ridging aloft
will lead to dry conditions Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be mostly clear and with cooler, drier air
filtering in, did blend in a little of the NBM 10th percentile
into the forecast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 40s and low
50s.

After the dry start to the day Saturday, clouds will increase
as an upper level shortwave and weak frontal boundary approach
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop later in the day ahead of the front and continue into
Saturday night as the front gradually moves through. Highs
Saturday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Some
valley locations may reach the mid 80s, especially with the
trend being slower with the arrival of precipitation. Lows
Saturday night will be milder in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday is expected to be largely dry with just a slight chance
(<25%) of a shower or thunderstorm with the heating of the day
with the front still close by. The best chance for this would be
over NE PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures will
be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
335 AM Update...

A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected
to lift north toward the area Sunday night and the main area of
low pressure lifts northeast into the Great Lakes on Monday,
Memorial Day. As a result, showers and thunderstorms look likely
for the holiday. As the low continues northeastward into SE
Canada, a broad upper trough remains over the region with a
couple of embedded shortwaves rotating through. This will keep
the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially during peak
heating hours.

Highs Memorial Day are expected to be in the low to mid 70s,
then it will cool down into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front will push through the region this morning with a
chance for more showers and thunderstorms, mostly in NE PA and
possibly into the Southern Tier and this will be accompanied by
a period of MVFR ceilings at AVP.

Showers and thunderstorms will push east of the area by mid
morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the day.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL/MPK/MPH