Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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586 FXUS63 KBIS 301703 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1203 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms will exit the Turtle Mountains and James River Valley early this afternoon. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may move into the northwest late this afternoon. - Temperatures will be slightly cooler today and Friday, then temperatures warm through the weekend and into early next week. - Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm chances Friday. Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will then return Sunday and through the first half of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to track north and east today, exiting the forecast area early this afternoon. Made some minor adjustments to pops through the early afternoon. A blend of short term guidance resulted in slightly cooler temperatures north central this afternoon. Temperatures in the west are near forecast highs but probably won`t warm much this afternoon, but they may climb just above their current forecast highs into the low to mid 60s. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 755 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Quick update for pops this morning. Showers are noted over western ND so pulled pops back a little farther west through the morning hours. Otherwise no changes to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers continue over much of the forecast area as a low pressure circulation exists over north central/northwest ND. This maintains a cluster of showers in the northwest and north central, while another cluster is moving into the southwest and south central from South Dakota. Adjusted PoPs based on the latest observations and radar imagery. There`s been very few lightning strikes observed through the night. However, maintained a slight chance of thunder through the morning hours. These showers, along with the occasional rumble of thunder, are still expected to gradually end from west to east this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 As a surface trough propagates eastward this morning, showers, along with a few thunderstorms, will continue ending from west to east. By noon, most precipitation will have ended, although there may be a few lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly in the James River Valley up through the Turtle Mountains. Isolated to scattered showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of thunder, may wrap into the northwest this afternoon and evening. Quasi-stationary upper low over south central Canada will persist this afternoon through Sunday night. As a result, a couple more shortwaves will impact the area. The first one is Friday afternoon and evening where scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible. The second one is sometime Sunday into Sunday night where additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop. A few severe thunderstorms aren`t totally out of the question on Sunday as supported by CSU machine learning. Once the quasi-stationary upper low becomes more progressive and kicks off to the east Sunday night into Monday, a trailing, yet subtle ridge will meander over the area. This will lead to dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures in the west. Models are in fair agreement that another upper low/trough may pass through sometime Monday night through Tuesday night, which could generate additional showers and thunderstorms. Overall, cooler conditions are on tap for today with highs mainly in the 60s west to low 70s east. There will be a very subtle overall warming trend through early next week. However, highs are forecast to remain seasonable to seasonably warm from Saturday through the first half of next week. Lows will be mainly in the 40s tonight and Friday night before reaching mostly the 50s for the remainder of the period. Other than tonight and in the west Friday night, these too are seasonable to seasonably warm for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should be exiting the James River Valley early in the forecast period and may need to carry a VCTS/VCSH at KJMS very early on in the period. Otherwise precipitation has exited the forecast area. Additional isolated shower activity may move into the northwest late this afternoon but for now will not include a VCSH. Westerly surface winds today generally 15 to 25 knots. Winds will diminish to 5-10 knots this evening and generally southwest to west, and will begin to pick up late in the morning Friday. Once activity exits the KJMS area VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...TWH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH