618
FXUS63 KBIS 311730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool temperatures today with scattered afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Dry Saturday, then chances for showers and thunderstorms
  return later Saturday night through next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

No major adjustments to the forecast were necessary at this
time. High clouds are continuing to push into the south at this,
with the development of diurnal cumulus across the west
beginning to hint at the anticipated showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the north later this afternoon and evening.
West to northwesterly winds are picking up across the north,
with gusts up to 25 knots observed as the tail end of an upper
level jet has begun to mix down.


UPDATE
Issued at 850 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The forecast remains on track at the time of this update.
Temperatures have risen to the upper 30s and lower 40s across
the southwest this morning, so we have allowed the Frost
Advisory to expire on time. Otherwise, conditions remain fairly
clear at this time though some high clouds have begun to push
into the south.

UPDATE Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

No aviation issues this period. VFR conditions will prevail
through the 12Z period. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible across most of western and
central North Dakota today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

An active weather pattern will remain across the region for the
next several days, with the upper level jet aloft across the
Northern Plains. This pattern will promote seasonly high and
low temperatures and daily chances for shower and thunderstorms.

We will continue to monitor for severe weather chances through
this active period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VRF conditions are mainly expected throughout the 18Z TAF
period. Some diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two
are expected to develop across the northwest and north central
this afternoon through the evening which may briefly introduce
some MVRF ceilings, though there is not enough confidence to place
it any given TAF site at this time. Winds are expected to be
out of the southwest this afternoon, with the northern terminals
of KXWA and KMOT moderate speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to
25 knots through the early afternoon. Winds will diminish
through the late afternoon, and remain light overnight while
becoming more westerly.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...Adam