Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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618 FXUS63 KBIS 311730 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool temperatures today with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Dry Saturday, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return later Saturday night through next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 No major adjustments to the forecast were necessary at this time. High clouds are continuing to push into the south at this, with the development of diurnal cumulus across the west beginning to hint at the anticipated showers and isolated thunderstorms across the north later this afternoon and evening. West to northwesterly winds are picking up across the north, with gusts up to 25 knots observed as the tail end of an upper level jet has begun to mix down. UPDATE Issued at 850 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The forecast remains on track at the time of this update. Temperatures have risen to the upper 30s and lower 40s across the southwest this morning, so we have allowed the Frost Advisory to expire on time. Otherwise, conditions remain fairly clear at this time though some high clouds have begun to push into the south. UPDATE Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 No aviation issues this period. VFR conditions will prevail through the 12Z period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible across most of western and central North Dakota today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 An active weather pattern will remain across the region for the next several days, with the upper level jet aloft across the Northern Plains. This pattern will promote seasonly high and low temperatures and daily chances for shower and thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor for severe weather chances through this active period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VRF conditions are mainly expected throughout the 18Z TAF period. Some diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are expected to develop across the northwest and north central this afternoon through the evening which may briefly introduce some MVRF ceilings, though there is not enough confidence to place it any given TAF site at this time. Winds are expected to be out of the southwest this afternoon, with the northern terminals of KXWA and KMOT moderate speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots through the early afternoon. Winds will diminish through the late afternoon, and remain light overnight while becoming more westerly. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/NH DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...Adam