824
FXUS63 KBIS 251359
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
859 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (about 60 percent) return
  Sunday morning through Monday morning.

- Brief dry period for Tuesday into early Wednesday, with active
  weather pattern returning for the rest of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The Frost Advisory and Freeze warning were allowed to expire at
the planned 13z time. No major updates this morning otherwise,
fog has dissipated and the rain showers in the north are gone.
The forecast still on track for a sunny Saturday.

UPDATE
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

For early morning update radar echos over northwest North Dakota
have been reluctant to dissipate, so have added some low chances
for the next couple of hours. Over portions of western and south
central North Dakota some patches of fog have developed, so have
added that to the forecast through the early morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Current surface analysis places low near and just to the north
of Lake of the Woods along the Manitoba/Ontario border. Upper
level analysis shows low nearly stacked, with weak ridging to
the lee of the Rockies. A few weak waves currently rotating
around the low, one of which is possibly producing a few light
rain/snow showers over the northwest per latest radar imagery,
though no surface observations are picking up on this at this
moment. Many locations in our area have dipped into the mid
30s, in line with the ongoing frost/freeze headlines.

For today, a quiet day is expected as upper low lifts northerly
and warmer air starts to return to the area. With that said,
high temperatures will still be about 5 to 10 degrees below
average (with average highs this time of year hovering around
70).

Then next short wave wraps in south of the aforementioned low
very late tonight into Sunday, resulting in elevated rain shower
chances (~50-70 percent chance) Sunday spreading west to east.
Enough instability will be present for some thunderstorms to
occur, but at this time the severe potential remains low.
Chances for showers remain into Monday primarily over eastern
portions of the area as the upper low starts to open and becomes
wrapped behind the trough to the east, passing through our
area.

Ridge to the west gradually slides through our area for Tuesday
into the start of Wednesday, bringing a dry period and a very
gradual warming trend with temperatures climbing into the 70s
across the area by Wednesday.

Ridge slides east late day Wednesday into Thursday, with
shower/thunderstorm chances returning as pattern becomes active
again through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 850 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Winds will be light and
variable. VFR clouds and rain showers will move west to east
across the area starting Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS/Smith