166
FXUS63 KBIS 051508
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1008 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds today across much of North Dakota. The
  strongest winds today are expected in southwestern North
  Dakota with gusts up to 55 mph.

- Breezy to wind conditions to remain through Thursday, mainly
  in northern and eastern portions.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures with mostly dry
  weather through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Winds remain slow to increase, although are starting to increase
upstream in Montana and in some western North Dakota sites. Made
slight changes to wind forecast, although the Wind Advisory
still remains valid for today. This afternoon could see some
isolated showers develop in northern and eastern areas. There is
some weak instability and modest mid level lapse rates. This
could result in an isolated thunderstorm, although severe
weather is not expected today.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There were some light rain showers in the east so PoPs were
updated for that. The winds out west are a little slow to get to
advisory level winds, but the advisory for the southwest has
started. Now that the sun is fully up, the boundary layer should
start mixing and winds will increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Somewhat zonal flow on the south side of a stacked low system in
southern Canada currently. High pressure is to our southwest in
Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient force and a weak cold front
this afternoon will produce very strong west winds, especially
in the southwest portion of the state of North Dakota. Winds
will gust as high as 55 mile per hour. We decided to go with an
advisory instead of a high wind warning because only a few
locations in the southwest could mix winds higher than 55 mile
per hour, and we just didn`t have the confidence in widespread
60 mile per hour winds to do a warning. So, we have a two part
Wind Advisory. The southwest portion starts at 10z and the rest
of the county warning area starts a little bit later in the
morning at 15z. The Wind Advisory (both parts) will expire at
02z. However it will remain breezy through the night, so make
sure you keep your objects secured still. This is because the
high pressure bubble will move west to east across the state,
starting right now. The west has already started gusting at 30
mile per hour, at the time of this issuance of the area
forecast discussion. Thursday will be breezy, but the winds will
not be gusting as high, just around 40 mile per hour in the
east, and around 30 elsewhere.

Temperatures today will be below average again thanks to the
northwest surface flow and the cold front already mentioned.
Aloft the flow will turn northwest with a large ridge building
around the Four Corners High pressure in the Southwest CONUS.
This ridge will last through the weekend with no push of warm
air to North Dakota by the thermal ridge. It stays mostly south
of here. So, even though we will have ridging, the high
temperatures everyday will stay at or below average through this
weekend. There will be slight (20 percent) chances for
thunderstorms in the far northeast, where the cyclonic flow is
still existing. The chances are this afternoon, and Friday
afternoon. After Saturday the flow aloft changes slightly. We
still have the ridge but now it is compressed by an upper level
low in southern Canada. Temperatures will cool even more for
Sunday as zonal westerly flow is over North Dakota. It is not
until Monday for when rain chances are possible with this low. A
cold front and shortwave rotating around the low move through.
For now we just have slight (15 percent) chances moving west to
east across the state Monday. Another ridge looks to move in
mid-week. This one is smaller and quick moving, but it will
bring warmer 850 millibar temperatures. So highs Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be above normal in the upper 70s and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR and very windy. Westerly winds gusting to 45 kts are
possible today across most of western and central ND. Clouds
around 8kft will move into the north central and east this
afternoon, sticking around until Thursday morning. LLWS is
possible around 10z Thursday but left it out for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith