320
FNUS73 KBIS 211924
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Belrose...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
224 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 CDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected at the burn site at
the time of ignition. Isolated showers are developing across the
area and may move over the burn location. A high temperature of 69
degrees is forecast, with the minimum relative humidity
anticipated to be in the high upper 20s to lower 30s. Light and
variable winds early this afternoon will organize from 5 to 10 mph
out of the north to northwest late through the rest of the day as
a surface low center moves into North Dakota. Where showers do
develop, gusty and erratic winds are expected.

Temperatures tonight are forecast to drop to around 39 degrees.
However, with clear skies, temperatures may fall a bit more than
this which could result in frost development at the surface.
Relative humidities are expected to max out in the upper 80s
overnight. Wednesday looks to be mostly sunny with a high of 67
and a minimum relative humidity value dropping into the lower 30s.
Northwesterly winds are expected to start the day before shifting
to the north in the later afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 10 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (66700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  80  78
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1
Temp............64  64  64
RH..............38  38  38
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   8
20 FT wind gust.11  11  13
Mix hgt (kft)...7.4 7.5 7.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.10  10  13
Haines index....5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..67  68  84

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy becoming mostly clear overnight.
                    Isolated rain showers early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........79  78  71  62  54  45  34  24  15  6   4   7
Weather cov.....ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  62  59  55  51  49  47  45  44  42  41  38
RH..............38  39  45  54  61  66  70  73  73  79  79  81
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  9   9   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  17  14  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...7.0 5.5 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  18  18  15  14  14  14  13  13  13  12  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..78  88  31  6   5   5   5   4   4   4   3   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (119100 knot-ft)
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........7         10        9         19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        48        59        64
RH..............82        64        44        37
20 FT wind......NW 7G13   NW 9G14   NW 9G15   NW 10G17
Mix hgt (ft)....300       2300      6200      7400
Transport wind..NW 12     NW 16     NW 20     NW 18
Haines index....5         4         5         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3         34        106       119

$$
Forecaster...ADAM
Requested by...Jeff Dion
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414842.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Lennie_houle@fws.gov