009
FNUS73 KBIS 201311
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Dam 41...US FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
811 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

It looks to be a fairly quiet day at the burn site with a few
clouds this morning giving way to a mostly sunny sky through the
afternoon. The high will reach to around 67 with an afternoon
minimum humidity of around 36 percent. Winds will be out of the
northwest in the 9 to 12 mph range. There`s only a very slight
chance (10 percent) of a late afternoon showers at the burn site.
Tonight we will see a low around 42 with humidity recovering to
around 91 percent.

Tomorrow`s forecast should be fairly similar but there could be a
slightly better chance of a shower in the afternoon (20 percent)
and the minimum humidity will be a little bit higher, around 41
percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (48100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (95400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  32  26  33  39  46  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  59  61  63  65  65  65
RH..............63  57  51  45  39  38  37
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  10  10  10   9
20 FT wind gust.15  13  14  14  14  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 4.6 5.6 6.2 7.0 7.7 8.0
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  16  18  17  15  14  12
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..55  69  92  95  93  94  81

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers late in the
                    evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph late in the evening, then becoming
                    light in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east 7 to 12
                    mph in the late evening and overnight, then
                    shifting to the southeast around 8 mph early in
                    the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (71100 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57  62  62  62  62  61  60  58  55  52  49  43
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............66  65  62  58  54  52  50  48  46  46  45  44
RH..............36  37  41  51  59  67  75  81  86  84  87  89
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  E   E   NE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   4
20 FT wind gust.12  11  9   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...7.9 7.2 5.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   E   NE  NE  NE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   6   7   10  12  9   8   9   9   9   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..71  57  31  4   4   5   4   3   4   4   3   3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the morning, then shifting to the southwest 6
                    to 8 mph early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    west 7 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (76700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........37        35        43        53
Weather cov.....                              S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............44        52        62        66
RH..............91        73        50        41
20 FT wind......SE 4G7    S 5G9     SW 6G10   W 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1000      5200      7100
Transport wind..SE 8      S 12      SW 12     SW 12
Haines index....5         5         4         5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..3         11        55        74

$$
Forecaster...HARGROVE
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414712.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov