892
FNUS73 KBIS 190920
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Mt. Moriah WPA...FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
420 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A few rain showers are possible early this morning, but dry
weather is expected from late morning through the afternoon before
shower and thunderstorm chances increase this evening. A mostly
cloudy sky can be expected through the day, with an east-southeast
wind around 10 to 15 mph during the planned burn. Relative
humidity around 60 percent at the planned ignition time is
forecast to fall to around 50 percent in the afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East-southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East-southeast around 15 to 20 mph, increasing
                    to around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (73900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  89  85  86  80  85  83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  57  61  61  61  63  61
RH..............59  57  49  49  51  50  53
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  E   E   SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..9   11  12  12  13  14  15
20 FT wind gust.14  15  17  18  19  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.9 3.5 3.0
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.13  17  21  24  26  24  18
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..10  17  39  58  67  74  48

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance
                    of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance
                    of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 54 percent in the
                    evening, then decreasing to 0 percent
                    overnight.
LAL.................2 until 1900, then 3 until 2200, then 2 until
                    0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 to 15 mph early in the
                    evening, shifting to the northeast around 10 mph
                    later in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest around 7 to 10 mph late in the night.
                    Gusty and erratic winds possible near thunderstorms
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 12 to 18 mph early in the evening,
                    shifting to the northeast around 10 to 15 mph
                    late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northwest around 8 to 12 late in the night.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  86  87  87  91  85  77  85  86  83  84  62
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   50  50  50  50  50  50  0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
Temp............61  60  58  55  54  53  51  51  50  51  49  49
RH..............53  58  67  74  80  83  93  93  96  93  100 96
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  N   N   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  12  12  12  10  9   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  19  18  15  14  14  13  13  13  13  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.17  18  16  14  13  12  12  10  10  10  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Dispr kt-ft/1K..40  31  15  8   7   5   5   4   5   4   4   4

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (86200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........59        66        55        62
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............49        52        59        64
RH..............93        89        69        54
20 FT wind......NW 10G14  N 12G18   NW 13G18  N 13G17
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1400      3600      5300
Transport wind..NW 14     NW 17     NW 18     NW 18
Haines index....4         3         3         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5         21        59        84

$$
Forecaster...HOLLAN
Requested by...Terry Gwilliams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414600.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Terry_Gwilliams@fws.gov