676
FNUS73 KBIS 230821
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Nelson Prairie North...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
321 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Rain showers are expected at the burn site today, with the greatest
chances in the early morning and in the late afternoon. Humidity
values are expected to be elevated, with minimum values in the
mid 60s. Winds will be gusty out of the northeast.

Rain showers will continue tonight into Friday morning, with gusty
northeasterly winds.


.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain showers.
CWR.................40 percent increasing to 70 percent in the
                    late afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 28 mph.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 23 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor in the morning increasing to fair in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  97  96  97  97  97  98
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
CWR.............40  40  40  30  30  30  70  70
Chc of pcpn (%).50  40  30  30  40  40  60  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  48  49  49  51  51  52  51
RH..............86  83  77  74  68  68  66  68
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..14  15  16  16  16  18  18  17
20 FT wind gust.22  22  22  22  24  27  28  26
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.24  24  25  25  26  28  28  27
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy with rain showers.
CWR.................90 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 14 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    north around 15 mph after 3 am. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 22 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers in the morning,
                    then chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................80 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 15 to 19 mph with gusts to around
                    28 mph, shifting towards the northwest in the late
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 22 to 28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor early in the morning increasing to good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...D. Marsden
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414938.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dominic_marsden@fws.gov