549
FNUS73 KBIS 220822
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Ghylin...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
322 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather is expected at the burn site today, with a light
west-northwest wind and minimum humidity values dipping into the mid 30s.
Winds turn northeast tonight and increase with a chance of rain showers.
Rain showers become likely at the burn site on Thursday, with some
thunderstorms possible.


.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny through much of the day, then
                    increasing late afternoon clouds.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West-northwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor early in the morning
                    increasing to good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........23  26  24  22  20  29  39  49  49
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  53  56  60  61  64  65  66  67
RH..............68  61  53  46  44  40  38  36  35
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   9   10  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  14  14  14  13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 3.0 4.2 5.6 6.9 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  13  14  14  14  14  14  15  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..15  33  50  68  83  93  94  96  85

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Chance
                    of rain showers in the late  evening and
                    overnight.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 16 mph mid-evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph shifting to the northeast
                    8 to 16 mph in the late evening increasing
                    to 18 to 22 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
                    morning, then rain showers likely and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................45 percent.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 22 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...D. Mireles
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414877.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Dustin_mireles@fws.gov