564
FNUS73 KBIS 211244
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Silver Bridge...US FWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
744 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny skies are expected at the burn site today with light
and variable winds this morning becoming northwest in the afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity values will drop down to around 34 percent
this afternoon before recovering to around 92 percent tonight.
Isolated rain showers are expected this afternoon, and any showers
around or near the burn site could produce variable and gusty winds.

Temperatures tonight are forecast to drop to as low as 38 degrees.
However, with clear skies, temperatures may fall a bit more than this
which could result in frost development at the surface. Wednesday
looks to be mostly sunny with minimum relative humidity values
dropping to around 38 percent. Northwesterly winds are expected to
start the day before shifting to the north in the later afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers in
                    the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds becoming northwest 10
to 13 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (86900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  63  64  64  65  64  63
Weather cov.....                SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............61  62  65  65  66  66  66
RH..............48  46  38  37  36  34  34
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..6   7   8   9   10  12  13
20 FT wind gust.8   10  12  13  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 6.8 7.6 8.2 8.2 8.3 7.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   10  10  10  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Dispr kt-ft/1K..38  54  61  74  74  75  87

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (75400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  60  53  43  35  27  17  8   8   7   7   8
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  63  60  56  51  49  47  45  44  43  41  40
RH..............38  41  47  53  66  68  74  79  79  82  89  89
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..11  11  10  8   7   6   6   6   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  14  13  12  12  11  11  10  10  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...6.5 5.5 5.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  13  17  13  12  12  13  13  13  13  13  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..71  60  75  8   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (74100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........9         17        29        33
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0   Mostly      0         10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............39        46        58        63
RH..............92        79        49        39
20 FT wind......W 6G11    NW 8G12   NW 9G13   NW 10G15
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2700      4700      5800
Transport wind..NW 12     NW 14     NW 15     NW 14
Haines index....4         3         3         4
Dispr kt-ft/1K..5         32        60        73

$$
Forecaster...TELKEN
Requested by...Calvin
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414814.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov