849
FXUS64 KBMX 060551
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1005 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

Earlier severe MCS has weakened and generally pushed northeast of
the area, but still keeping an eye on one trailing storm in
Chambers County. The front remains back to our northwest over
Arkansas, with showers developing along a prefrontal trough over
Mississippi. A cold pool remains over the area and convective
overturning as occurred, but pre-frontal troughs will cause
chances of showers and possible thunderstorms to linger. PoP
trends remain uncertain however until models fully resolve the
aftermath of the MCS. Will have to monitor for any fog development
given the rainfall if the low clouds do not develop soon enough.

32/Davis

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

On Thursday, as the frontal boundary approaches and moves through
the state, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
throughout the day, with a decrease in coverage from the northwest
to the southeast as the frontal boundary moves through.
Instability is expected to be slightly less on Thursday and though
thunderstorms are expected, the intensity and coverage should be
less than this afternoon and evenings convection.

Temperatures today are a couple of degrees below guidance with
mostly overcast skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be several
degrees below normal in areas south of I20 and west of I65 where
cloud cover is expected to linger longer into the day.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

No significant changes in the extended this afternoon, with models
continuing to show a dry end of the week. The next shortwave
arrives early Sunday, with a series of impulses providing
opportunities for rain through Tuesday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

The shortwave axis and best rain chances should be south and east of
our area by late Thursday night/Friday morning. A cold front is
expected to push southward through Central AL during the day on
Friday, though model guidance continues to show this being a dry
front with limited if any shower activity. Drier air advects into
the region behind the front Friday evening leading to a mostly rain-
free start for the weekend.

The overall synoptic pattern with northwesterly flow aloft and weak
ridging in the low levels will persist through the weekend into
early next week. This means we`ll essentially be waiting for the
next shortwave to slide through the main upper level trough. Current
guidance suggests that this next wave, along with another boundary,
will slide through Central AL sometime Sunday and may linger into
Monday. There`s obviously a lot of unknowns about the timing of the
next wave so rain/thunderstorms chances remain generally around 30-
40%, but this will likely increase for one period or another once
the timing is resolved. We should see decreasing rain chances on
Tuesday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2024

Rains have just about ended for now, although some isolated to
scattered showers will likely develop closer to sunrise. Right now
the best chances are south and west of the TAF sites through 13z.
An area of showers and perhaps a storm will develop across the
south and east by 15z and will likely impact MGM and TOI for much
of the day. Areas to the north will see better rain chances after
18z as the front begins to enter the area. Rain chances really
drop off after 00z and then should be south of the area by 3z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period
through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and
Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Thursday
afternoon, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range on Friday.
20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly Friday,
with speeds less than 10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  63  85  58 /  50  10   0   0
Anniston    86  65  86  59 /  60  20   0   0
Birmingham  87  66  87  62 /  40  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  67  88  62 /  30   0   0   0
Calera      87  67  88  62 /  50  10   0   0
Auburn      84  69  88  63 /  70  30   0   0
Montgomery  86  69  90  62 /  60  30   0   0
Troy        86  68  90  62 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16