347
FXUS64 KBMX 050558
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 642 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

The latest visible satellite imagery has two boundaries moving
south to north over Central Alabama. These smaller scale
boundaries are interacting with high moisture values and
instability and were producing thunderstorms. The farthest
northern extent was approaching I-20 mainly west of I-65. Another
more organized are of thunderstorms was in far eastern Mississippi
and will move into western Alabama shortly. Effective Bulk Shear
is around 25kts but will decrease this evening. SBCAPE values are
around 3000 ahead of these storms. Therefore, think the storms
will continue on for another several hours. There may be a few
storms that are capable of producing some gusty winds and small
hail along with torrential downpours. There is a small chance that
the storms may reach severe limits. Went ahead and adjusted the
pops for this evening, increasing west of I-65. It appears that
a convectively induced vorticity area is developing on the north
edge of the convection in Mississippi and may generate more
activity as it eventually drift east northeast. Tonight and
Wednesday look like repeats of the past few days with weather and
temperatures.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

Of course the big question as we go into the evening and
overnight hours will be the potential for any convective complex
of storms to develop and move east into the area from Mississippi.
Currently, an MCS is moving southward in eastern Texas and
northern Louisiana. The MCV present across Central Arkansas will
certainly be the feature to watch as we go through the late
afternoon and evening hours in terms of storm development that
could impact our CWA. For now, confidence remains too low to
include any higher than chance PoPs across the northern counties
during the overnight hours. Muggy conditions are expected during
the overnight with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Going into the day on Wednesday, we`ll see a more robust upper
level shortwave diving into the Deep South as flow becomes
northwesterly aloft. An additional complex of showers and storms
will be possible Thursday afternoon as the shortwave passes
through, with a surface front moving southward into Arkansas and
Tennessee. While no mention of organized severe storms is
currently being mentioned, strong to isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible as these storms develop and move southeastward
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Before storms
arrive, hot and humid conditions will be ongoing as highs reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

Models continue to be consistent with rain and storms associated
with a shortwave trough moving through the area Wednesday night
and Thursday. As the shortwave shifts eastward, moisture also
shifts to the south and east, leaving a relatively dry airmass in
place as a cold front moves through on Friday. Will remove rain
chances for Friday. After a brief dry period on Saturday, rain
chances return as northwesterly flow remains over the area.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024

A shortwave trough will be moving through the region Wednesday night
through Thursday leading to a band of rain and thunderstorms across
the area. The highest coverage of storms will likely be Wednesday
evening before overnight stabilization decreases the coverage
through Thursday morning. More thunderstorms will likely develop
Thursday afternoon across the southeastern counties before the
trough fully moves out of our area.

A cold front will push southward through Central AL on Friday, but
guidance hints that there may only be isolated showers/storms with
the passage at best. For now, I don`t really have very high of rain
chances at all on Friday - only carrying 15-20% chance across the
far southern counties. However, it`s possible this could change in
the next day or so as higher resolution guidance becomes available
to get a better picture of the upper level moisture availability.

The front is well to our south by Saturday, which will lead to dry
conditions and mostly clear skies across the area. However, in this
season/period of northwesterly flow aloft, our next shortwave is
likely not far off. Models pick up on another wave sliding through
the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, which
could lead to another round of showers/storms Sunday into Monday,
but the timing of when it moves into Central AL and produces the
best chances for showers/storms is quite variable at this range, so
probabilities are generally 30% both afternoons due to the low
predictability.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 5 2024

Much of the rain is Low clouds and patchy fog will develop mainly
after 09z and a few spots may drop to IFR ceilings. These
ceilings rise after 14-16z. A few models develop some isentropic
lift and develop thunderstorms across the central sections of the
area by 15z, so added in some prob30 for this. More thunderstorms
will move in from the west after 21z through 3z. Winds will be
light southerly overnight outside convection and continue
southerly 5-10 kts through the afternoon.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday
before a frontal boundary moves through the area on Friday.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible each period
through Thursday, with rainfree conditions expected Friday and
Saturday. Minimum RH values remain above 50 percent Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons, and falling into the 35 to 45 percent range
on Friday. Southwesterly 20ft winds at 5-10mph continue Wednesday.
20ft winds become westerly Thursday and then northwesterly
Friday, with speeds less than 10mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  88  64 /  60  70  40  10
Anniston    89  69  88  66 /  50  70  60  10
Birmingham  89  70  89  68 /  70  70  40   0
Tuscaloosa  89  70  90  69 /  70  70  40   0
Calera      89  70  89  69 /  70  70  50   0
Auburn      89  71  86  70 /  50  60  70  10
Montgomery  91  71  87  70 /  40  60  70  10
Troy        91  70  87  69 /  40  50  70  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16