Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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789 FXUS64 KBMX 040857 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 357 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 711 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over Central Alabama early this evening. These storms were forming mainly due to small scale boundary interactions. Brief gusty winds or small hail is possible in the strongest storms. Otherwise, would expect a downward trend in the storm coverage from 8pm-4am. A thunderstorm line was located in far eastern Arkansas into Louisiana. This activity will continue eastward overnight. How much convection is still present along the line late tonight is still in question. But this boundary will approach west and northwest areas near the Mississippi state line just before daybreak. An upper trough will move over the area along with some convectively induced vorticity maximums. Therefore, rain/storms will have higher probabilities Tuesday. Some storms may be strong with brief gusty winds and small hail. Made some adjustments to the pops and general trends, but it appears the overall message is still valid through Tuesday. Early Tuesday morning, low clouds and some fog will be possible. Local areas may experience visibility drops before the clouds and fog lift by 9 am. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2024 Scattered convection has developed along an outflow boundary in eastern MS, with thunderstorms expected to meander into western Alabama through the afternoon. CAMs are not handling this convection well, so confidence remains low on extent of development this afternoon. Enough instability is over the state for diurnal convection this afternoon, with a greater concentration in the central and western portions of the state where instability is higher. PW values are max for this time of year so any stronger shower and thunderstorm will produce high rain rates. Overnight, an area of thunderstorms is expected to move into western Alabama in the early morning hours, and lasting through the early morning. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, but any activity will produce high rain rates and lightning. Diurnal activity will be quick to develop by mid day as plenty of moisture and instability remains over the state. A few areas in the east and south could see fog development in the early morning. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024 A shortwave trough will be moving through the region Wednesday night through Thursday leading to a band of rain and thunderstorms across the area. The highest coverage of storms will likely be Wednesday evening before overnight stabilization decreases the coverage through Thursday morning. More thunderstorms will likely develop Thursday afternoon across the southeastern counties before the trough fully moves out of our area. A cold front will push southward through Central AL on Friday, but guidance hints that there may only be isolated showers/storms with the passage at best. For now, I don`t really have very high of rain chances at all on Friday - only carrying 15-20% chance across the far southern counties. However, it`s possible this could change in the next day or so as higher resolution guidance becomes available to get a better picture of the upper level moisture availability. The front is well to our south by Saturday, which will lead to dry conditions and mostly clear skies across the area. However, in this season/period of northwesterly flow aloft, our next shortwave is likely not far off. Models pick up on another wave sliding through the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, which could lead to another round of showers/storms Sunday into Monday, but the timing of when it moves into Central AL and produces the best chances for showers/storms is quite variable at this range, so probabilities are generally 30% both afternoons due to the low predictability. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2024 We currently have a deteriorating convective complex over MS approaching AL state line. Clouds tops have warmed on satellite. Lightning activity has decreased greatly and is now basically SHRA. The bowing feature from earlier has deteriorated as well. As a result, the near short term will be SHRAs for TCL and toward sunrise for BHM/EET. By mid morning the remnants will be near ASN/ANB. Don`t expect much activity for MGM/TOI until later in the afternoon with heating. There is also the threat of another convective complex of storms reaching the MS/AL state line late this afternoon which could bring TSRA to TCL after sunset if it pans out. Outside of convection, MVFR stratus is expected to develop over the next couple of hours. A few areas could go down to IFR as well. Conditions should rebound to VFR 15-16z S to 16-18z N areas. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A warm and humid air mass will persist through at least Thursday before a frontal boundary pushes into the region on Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today before becoming more widespread Wednesday. Generally light southerly flow is expected today before shifting westerly Thursday ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 82 67 88 67 / 80 40 70 70 Anniston 83 68 88 69 / 80 30 60 70 Birmingham 84 70 89 70 / 80 40 60 70 Tuscaloosa 86 71 89 71 / 60 40 60 60 Calera 84 70 88 71 / 80 30 60 70 Auburn 85 69 87 71 / 50 30 40 60 Montgomery 85 70 90 71 / 40 30 50 60 Troy 86 68 91 70 / 40 30 40 50 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...08