Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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349 FXUS64 KBMX 241829 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 129 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 The first storms of the afternoon are currently firing across northern portions of Central Alabama and also across eastern Mississippi. These storms are developing along an old outflow boundary that is moving southeastward from previous MCS activity that occurred in Tennessee early this morning. We`ve got plenty of instability to work with this afternoon, with 3000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 40-50 knots of effective westerly bulk shear, and steep lapse rates aloft. LI`s are coming in between -5 and -8 along and west of the I-65 corridor. Uncertainties currently exist in terms of overall coverage of storms this afternoon, but it would not be out of the question for another MCS or multiple clusters of storms to develop and move southeast through this evening. The best chance of this occurring would be where the severe storm has currently developed in Monroe County, MS. With unidirectional shear profiles, damaging straight-line winds and large hail will be the main hazards with these storms. RAP analysis indicates the highest amount of DCAPE across western and southwestern counties, which could also help produce a better-defined cold pool boundary. We`ll see how trends evolve as we go through the afternoon. In the meantime, likely PoPs will remain in the forecast for the northern half of the area through this afternoon, with high PoPs continuing to the southeast before diminishing into the overnight hours. With westerly flow aloft continuing overnight, upper level shortwave activity will help develop additional clusters of showers and storms across southern Arkansas and northern Mississippi. We`ll watch those storms as they move east between midnight and 7am, as some of those could be on the strong side depending on how much available instability is still left from today`s activity. PoPs have been updated to high chance probability due to the uncertainty in placement of the storms, but may need to be increased into the likely category before all is said and done. Strong to isolated severe storms will remain in the forecast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as another shortwave impulse moves eastward. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms are possible if enough daytime heating occurs behind the morning activity. In terms of the CAMs, some are showing more convective development than others, but we should have enough support in the synoptic scale for storm development. Hail and gusty winds will be the main hazards through Saturday, which will be conditional based on mesoscale conditions. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 A weakening cold front begins to slow to our northwest Sunday as the main low pressure system lifts through the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. For Central AL, it will be hot and humid ahead of the boundary, though it still unclear whether the front actual pushes into our area. We`ll have to keep an eye on a possible MCS coming down during the daytime on Sunday given the hot/humid conditions and the convection along the front upstream. More details on that will become available as we get closer. For now, there could be strong to severe storms again Sunday, but there`s quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact timing. We might have continued storm chances Monday and Tuesday before the main trough finally pushes to our east, but again, mesoscale details will need to be worked out in the coming days. Slightly cooler and drier air builds in by roughly midweek leading to rain-free conditions and seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2024 VFR conditions are currently ongoing for all terminals, and expected to last into the early afternoon hours before SHRA/TSRA development occurs after 21z. At the current time, a TEMPO TSRA is needed for northern sites and amendments will be likely through the afternoon hours as confidence increases in development and movement of storms. Expect rapid reductions in visibility and variably gusty winds if any storm impacts a terminal location. TSRA chances are reduced for MGM and TOI, but still possible during the evening hours tonight. VFR conditions are expected between 06z and 12z Saturday morning with a potential for additional SHRA/TSRA activity. For now due to low confidence, have not included mention in the TAFs at this time, but updates will likely be needed. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Several opportunities for rain and storms through the weekend, as several impulses provide focus for convection, with enhanced coverage during the afternoon and evening, especially across northern counties. 20 foot winds will be from the south to southwest at less than 10 mph through Sunday. Min RH value will be near or above 50% through Sunday, with overnight recoveries near 100%. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 88 66 92 / 50 40 20 20 Anniston 68 88 69 91 / 60 40 20 20 Birmingham 71 89 71 92 / 60 40 20 10 Tuscaloosa 71 91 71 92 / 60 40 10 0 Calera 70 88 70 91 / 60 40 20 10 Auburn 70 86 70 89 / 50 30 10 10 Montgomery 72 90 71 92 / 40 30 10 0 Troy 71 90 70 92 / 30 30 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...56/GDG