Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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495 FXUS64 KBMX 300815 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 315 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 A "cool" front is moving through the area this morning. Showers and a few storms are developing along the leading edge as a shortwave slides along the front. Best chances will be this morning, generally in the south and west. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon and the front pushes through/washes out. High pressure will build in behind the system and allow more sun to shine on Friday. With the clouds across the area and rain across the south and west, temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. This may be one of those days in which the high is around 6 PM as the sun begins to peak out across the south. Fair skies tonight as the high pressure builds. Look for lows to be in the upper 50s north to low 60s elsewhere. With the sun on Friday, temperatures will jump into the mid to upper 80s, with a few locales near 90 degrees. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time. /61/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024 VFR conditions to remain for the period. Winds will shift to more of northerly direction by 18 to 21. A shower/storm can not be ruled out south of EET/TCL but chances remain at 20 percent or less so continued to leave out. NOTE: Metars for ANB are unavailable, so added AMD NOT SKED for this update. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered rain showers and a storm or two will move across the southern portions of the area through the morning. Rain chances decrease this afternoon. Minimum RH values in the 35 to 40 in the northeast to 50 to 60 percent in the southwest with the rain early. Minimum RH values range from 30 to 40 percent on Friday. 20ft winds will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly Saturday at 4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend along with increased RH values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 55 87 63 / 10 0 0 10 Anniston 83 58 88 64 / 10 10 0 0 Birmingham 84 62 89 69 / 20 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 82 63 89 68 / 20 10 10 10 Calera 82 62 88 68 / 20 10 0 10 Auburn 81 62 86 66 / 20 10 0 0 Montgomery 81 62 89 69 / 20 10 0 10 Troy 82 62 89 68 / 20 10 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM..../61/ AVIATION...16