Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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456 FXUS64 KBMX 292321 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 621 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 615 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024 More recent model guidance shows the potential for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across southern and central areas during the morning and daytime hours tomorrow. Have increased PoPs spatially during this time period, but remained at slight chance for now. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid. 12 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024 High pressure will be over the southeast through tomorrow. Dry weather and increasing clouds will be the main story for today, with high temperatures a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Overnight through early Thursday, a shortwave will move across the state, with models showing different resolutions of how widely scattered activity will be through the morning. Most of the western half of the state could see scattered rain with isolated thunder, though instabilities will be limited. Any activity should quickly weaken into the afternoon. Temperatures will be several degrees low with expected increase in cloud cover and northerly flow continuing over the state. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 151 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024 Model trends continue to show mostly dry conditions through the week, as zonal to northwesterly flow continues aloft. Impulses driving convection weaken as they cross the Lower Mississippi River Valley, leaving very little chance for rain for the end of the work week. For Saturday and Sunday, a stronger shortwave/closed low will move through the Mississippi River Valley toward the Ohio River Valley. There is a large amount of uncertainty in strength, timing, and track of this wave, which leads to a low confidence forecast for rain chances over the weekend and into next week. Highs will generally be in the 80s and lows in the 60s. 14 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. However, on Thursday, scattered showers and a rumble of thunder are possible, especially at TCL, EET, MGM, and TOI. Due to uncertainty in coverage, mention has been left out for now. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated to scattered rain chances return for Thursday, but better chances in the southwest and the northeast likely remaining dry. Moisture returns, with minimum RH values in the 35 to 50 percent range during the afternoons Thursday through Saturday. 20ft winds will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly Saturday at 4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 81 57 85 / 0 10 0 10 Anniston 60 82 58 85 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 63 81 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 Tuscaloosa 65 81 63 87 / 10 20 10 10 Calera 63 81 62 86 / 10 20 10 10 Auburn 63 81 62 84 / 10 20 10 10 Montgomery 66 82 65 87 / 10 20 10 10 Troy 66 83 64 88 / 10 20 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...12