Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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704 FXUS64 KBMX 111700 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 A cold front is well to our south now with high pressure and drier air settling over the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys. Conditions across Central Alabama for the next couple days will consist of mostly clear skies, with warm afternoon temperatures and cooler overnight temperatures due to lower humidity. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s, and overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Wednesday night through Monday. The main story for the long term period will be the combination of hot and dry conditions, with the possibility of no rain through Monday or beyond. A warming trend will take hold on Thursday with widespread low 90s for highs as an upper-level ridge starts to move in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s on Friday and the upper 90s in some areas on Saturday. Dewpoints being in the 60s should keep heat indices from being excessively high. By Sunday, significant disagreement becomes evident in model guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF has trended even farther west with this system while a ridge holds firm over the Southeast CONUS. This would lead to continued hot and dry conditions through Monday. However, the GFS tracks this system into Louisiana and Mississippi, bringing increased rain chances to Alabama. For this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier scenario portrayed in previous forecasts. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Some high clouds are moving northeast over the area, otherwise conditions are dry with low level winds from the north. Winds will be light overnight with low potential for some brief patchy fog near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure settles over the region. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to range between 30 to 40 percent, but remain above critical levels. Recovery RH values tonight will range from 75 to 95 percent. 20-foot winds will be at or less than 5 mph, from a north to northeasterly heading through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 84 58 89 61 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 85 59 90 64 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 85 61 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 87 59 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 60 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 88 64 90 69 / 0 0 10 0 Montgomery 88 62 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 90 63 93 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05