512
FXUS64 KBMX 100539
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

A few storms may become strong overnight, no widespread severe
weather is expected. There will be thunderstorm chances overnight
as a cold front slowly moves north to south over the area. Made
some adjustments to the rain chances overnight with the best
chance north. It still looks like the northern areas will drop off
into the 60s while southern areas remain mild in the 70s.

Previous short-term discussion:
(Monday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

Monday.

The national flow pattern amplifies on Monday with longwave
troughing over the Tennessee Valley extending northeast toward the
upper low located just northeast of Maine while ridging builds
over much of the Plains. The surface cold front will continue to
advance south toward the Gulf Coast through the day. Decreasing
clouds are forecast across the northwest half of the area while
lingering clouds with chances for shower and thunderstorm activity
will continue across the southern half of the area through the
morning hours, becoming increasingly confined to the far southeast
counties after noontime. Dry conditions will return areawide by
the evening hours. Winds will be from the northwest areawide with
speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low
80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around
90 across the far southeast counties.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

The main focus during the week will be on increasing heat and
potential heat-related impacts as we reach the warmest temperatures
so far this year towards the end of the week. Upper-level troughing
over the Southeast and a large region of high pressure over the
Central US will drive northeasterly flow across Central Alabama and
highs in the mid 90s. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry for much
of the earlier half of the week with small opportunities for rain
across the far south related to inverted troughing over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

86/Martin

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 9 2024

A significant upper-level trough east of the Mississippi River and
the associated confluence zone will support relative high pressure
moving southward into the Ohio Valley and southern states. A
cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north
Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s
from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity
values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
remains in control under northwesterly flow at 500 mb.

While moisture will gradually increase Thursday through Saturday,
the arrival of increased rain chances could be delayed. Models are
trending toward more ridging across the Deep South, keeping a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico south of our area through
Saturday. Our latest forecast significantly undercuts the NBM POPs
Thursday through Saturday, and it is possible that most of the
forecast area remains dry.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024

Most of the showers and storms will move through the northeastern
sections of the area. There could be some isolated activity across
the north but should be limited to just showers with a low
probability of thunder. There may a brief re-development late
morning into the early afternoon across MGM and TOI so included
prob30 here.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels
over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the
upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7
mph over the next few days, northerly today then northeasterly on
Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur through this
afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front
finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  56  84  57 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    86  57  85  59 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  86  59  85  61 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  87  59  86  61 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      87  60  86  62 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      87  62  87  65 /  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  89  62  88  65 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        91  63  89  65 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....86
AVIATION...16