Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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262 FXUS64 KBMX 120020 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 720 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Tonight. Broad ridging aloft will be positioned over the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region overnight while the stationary front remains to our south and surface high pressure extends from Upstate New York southwest into the Central Plains. Look for mostly clear skies tonight. Some brief patchy fog may develop near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will be from the north from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s far southeast. Wednesday. A weakness in the mid-levels will move southeast over the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the day Wednesday that will support a surface low to develop along the stationary front to our south. This feature will remain to our south but will move eastward through the day generally paralleling the Interstate 10 corridor. Skies will range from mostly sunny northwest to partly cloudy southeast on Wednesday. There will be a very small chance for a few showers or a stray storm to develop across our east and southeast counties in association with the surface low to our southeast during the afternoon, but residual dry air aloft looks to be a major limiting factor. I did draw in some PoPs but kept them below 10 percent based upon current thinking that dry conditions will likely prevail. Winds will become more east through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will increase areawide, ranging from the upper 80s far northwest to the low 90s south. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 As an upper-level ridge axis moves across the Gulf Coast region, high temperatures are expected to run 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, in the middle to upper 90s. Within the upper end of that range, highs would end up in record territory during the Friday to Sunday time frame. Might a couple communities hit 100? Daytime low-level mixing looks to keep dew points from being too high, averaging in the 60s during the late morning to afternoon, so that will keep it from feeling excessively muggy, though still noticeable. Moisture content should be on the increase next week and we may get in on some shower/storm chances, in part pending the evolution of a Gulf area of low pressure, though nothing too meaningful for our area at this juncture. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024 Almost a repeat performance of the past 24 hours. A front was draped along the Gulf Coast while high pressure was centered to our north northwest. Cirrus will continue to stream overhead and be the only cloud cover. Winds will become light and variable to calm overnight and Monday will see a varying wind direction by location but remaining 5kts or below. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... No rain is expected through the week as a high pressure system advances upon the region. RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds. 20-foot winds will be from the north today, with some directional variability across central Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday between northeast to southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 58 89 62 92 / 0 10 0 0 Anniston 59 90 65 92 / 0 10 0 10 Birmingham 61 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 59 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 60 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 10 Auburn 64 90 70 91 / 0 10 0 10 Montgomery 62 91 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 93 68 94 / 0 10 0 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite AVIATION...75