325
FXUS64 KBMX 111836
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

This afternoon.

Longwave troughing was over much of the Eastern Seaboard while
amplified ridging was over the Lower and Middle Mississippi River
Valley Region. A stationary front was draped from west to east
roughly along the Northern Gulf Coast while expansive surface high
pressure extended from Michigan south into Tennessee.

Expect mostly sunny skies today with only some high-level clouds
over the area. Winds will be from the north from 5-10 mph. High
temperatures will range from around 80 far northeast to the low
90s far southeast.

Tonight.

Broad ridging aloft will be positioned over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley Region overnight while the stationary front remains
to our south and surface high pressure extends from Upstate New
York southwest into the Central Plains.

Look for mostly clear skies tonight. Some brief patchy fog may
develop near water features before sunrise on Wednesday. Winds
will be from the north from 2-5 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the upper 50s northwest to the mid 60s far southeast.

Wednesday.

A weakness in the mid-levels will move southeast over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley during the day Wednesday that will
support a surface low to develop along the stationary front to our
south. This feature will remain to our south but will move
eastward through the day generally paralleling the Interstate 10
corridor.

Skies will range from mostly sunny northwest to partly cloudy
southeast on Wednesday. There will be a very small chance for a
few showers or a stray storm to develop across our east and
southeast counties in association with the surface low to our
southeast during the afternoon, but residual dry air aloft looks
to be a major limiting factor. I did draw in some PoPs but kept
them below 10 percent based upon current thinking that dry
conditions will likely prevail. Winds will become more east
through the day with speeds from 5-10 mph. High temperatures will
increase areawide, ranging from the upper 80s far northwest to the
low 90s south.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

Wednesday night through Monday.

The main story for the long term period will be the combination of
hot and dry conditions, with the possibility of no rain through
Monday or beyond. A warming trend will take hold on Thursday with
widespread low 90s for highs as an upper-level ridge starts to move
in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot
and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s
on Friday and the upper 90s in some areas on Saturday. Dewpoints
being in the 60s should keep heat indices from being excessively
high.

By Sunday, significant disagreement becomes evident in model
guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the
associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF has trended even
farther west with this system while a ridge holds firm over the
Southeast CONUS. This would lead to continued hot and dry conditions
through Monday. However, the GFS tracks this system into Louisiana
and Mississippi, bringing increased rain chances to Alabama. For
this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier
scenario portrayed in previous forecasts.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Some high clouds
are moving northeast over the area, otherwise conditions are dry
with low level winds from the north. Winds will be light overnight
with low potential for some brief patchy fog near water features
before sunrise on Wednesday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue through tomorrow as high pressure settles
over the region. Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to range
between 30 to 40 percent, but remain above critical levels.
Recovery RH values tonight will range from 75 to 95 percent.
20-foot winds will be at or less than 5 mph, from a north to
northeasterly heading through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  89  62  92 /   0  10   0   0
Anniston    59  90  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  61  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  59  90  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      60  90  67  94 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      64  90  70  91 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  62  91  68  94 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        63  93  68  94 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05