308
FXUS65 KBOI 290930
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
330 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The upper level
trough which kicked off numerous showers and thunderstorms
yesterday will pass through the area today. Temperatures will be
much cooler, with lower valley highs around 70 degrees, about a
20 degree drop from yesterday. Cooler and drier air will result
in stable conditions today, and aside from a few showers this
morning in eastern areas, most areas will remain dry. Winds will
be breezy today as the trough pushes through with gusts 20-30
mph, expect 30-45 mph from Mountain Home east into the Magic
Valley. An shortwave trough will move by to our north tonight,
resulting in a 20-40% chance of showers in the mountains east of
McCall. Thursday will be similar to today as dry northwest flow
develops behind the departing trough, except no chance of
showers and winds will subside. The flow will turn westerly as
a weak upper level ridge moves overhead on Friday. This will
bring about 10 degrees of warming with continued dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Models remain in good
agreement with regard to large scale features, including the passage
of two upper troughs - the first over the weekend, and the second
early next week. The first trough appears to be the weaker of the
two, with just a 15-30 percent chance of showers across far northern
Baker County into the West Central Mountains of Idaho. A weak cold
front will likely accompany the trough for breezy conditions.
Weekend temperatures average slightly above normal. The second
trough taps into more Pacific moisture for a better chance (30-60
percent) of showers on Monday. A cold front also accompanies the
trough for breezy to windy conditions. Moisture could linger in the
north for a 15-30 percent chance of showers on Tuesday, along with
near-normal temperatures. Models, including ensembles, diverge
somewhat by midweek, although most members agree in depicting an
upper ridge developing for dry conditions and a warming trend with
temperatures returning to above normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and generally dry today, but there is a low
confidence (around 20 percent) chance of showers at KMYL/KJER/KTWF
until 18Z. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt with gusts to around 30 kt.
10k ft MSL winds: SW 15-25 kt, becoming W-NW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR under scattered mid level clouds. NW winds around 15 kt
with gusts to around 25 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW