037
FXUS65 KBOI 010950
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
350 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Models have been
consistently showing marginally moist/unstable support for
showers across SE Oregon and SW Idaho this afternoon and evening
ahead of a weak upper trough. Confidence is low, therefore pops
remain generally less than 20 percent. There is also less than
a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in central Idaho this
afternoon. Some of the high resolution guidance indicates wind
gusts up to 35 mph with the showers/storms. A weak cold front
slides through the region tonight. Wind gusts up to 30 mph
accompany the front. Dry conditions in a post-frontal regime
are anticipated on Sunday, along with slightly cooler
temperatures. A very moist Pacific system is still on track to
spread rain across the area Sunday night and Monday. Latest
model runs are a bit faster and further south with the heaviest
rainfall. Highest total amounts (> 1 inch) are likely (>60
percent chance) across portions of central Idaho, including the
Boise/West Central Mountains. There is also a marginal risk for
flooding in these areas per latest WPC Outlook, but confidence
is low. Forecasts do show some rises on mainstem rivers in
central Idaho after the rain event during the midweek, but no
forecast points get anywhere close to flood stage. There is also
a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in SW Idaho on Monday.
Temperatures will be much cooler, along with breezy to locally
windy conditions.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Models, including the
ensembles, continue to indicate a substantial pattern change to
hot/mostly dry conditions later in the week as an upper ridge
strengthens over the region. Temperatures warm from near normal
on Tuesday to 15-20 degrees above normal Thursday through
Saturday. Enough moisture could make it into our area for a
slight chance of showers (generally less than 20 percent) late
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with increasing mid and high level clouds. A
slight chance of showers after 01/18Z, but low confidence (less
than 20 percent) in any of the showers reaching terminals.
Slight chance (less than 20 percent) of thunderstorms after
01/18Z in the West Central Mountains (including KMYL). Gusts up
to 30 kt with the showers/thunderstorms. Surface winds: W-NW
5-15 kt. 10k ft MSL winds: W 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low confidence (less than 20 percent) of a shower
after 02/00Z. SE winds less than 10 kt shifting to the
northwest after 01/18Z.

Sunday Outlook...VFR through Sunday afternoon. High confidence
(60-90 percent chance) of MVFR conditions developing across the
north (KBKE-KMYL) associated with widespread rain Sunday night.
SW-NW winds 5-15 kt with local gusts to 25 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....BW