644
FXUS65 KBOI 111520
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
920 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...Sunny and hotter through at least Monday, high
temps rising 3-4 degrees per day, and bringing the Treasure
Valley to near 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Low temps will
also rise but only 1-2 degrees per day. Afternoon winds all
those days should be lighter in the Snake Basin than they
were yesterday. No significant winds elsewhere. Upper level
high over the swrn US and the Pacific will block monsoon
moisture from reaching our area through at least Monday.
However, smoke aloft from fires in northern California will
spread across southern Harney and Malheur Counties. Wildfire
smoke also in eastern Valley County/ID today, then clearing.
Only minimal smoke is forecast near the surface. WNW flow
aloft should keep the rest of our CWA in the clear through
Monday. Current forecast is on track.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Mostly clear, except for scattered cumulus
developing over the mountains. Localized smoke near wildfires
in central Idaho and south-central Oregon. Surface winds: W-NW
5- 15 kt, with gusts 15-25 kt from KBKE southeast through the
Snake Basin this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 5-15
kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds W-NW 5-10 kt. Gusts around 20 kt this
afternoon.VFR. Mostly clear. Localized smoke near wildfires.
High density altitude due to hot temperatures, especially
Sunday/Monday. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt, with 15-25 kt gusts each
afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Mostly clear. Localized smoke near
wildfires. High density altitude due to hot temperatures,
especially Sunday/Monday. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt, with
15-25 kt gusts each afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...The heat will return
for the weekend as high pressure expands north from the Desert
SW. The air mass remains dry through Saturday, with a hint of
mid-level moisture increasing across the central Idaho mtns and
along the OR/NV border late Sunday. It`s not a strong signal,
but could be enough to feed cumulus buildups in these areas
Sunday afternoon. Have introduced smoke wording to the forecast
for these same areas with wildfires in northern CA and new
starts in the central ID mtns being the main source. The winds
will follow a diurnal cycle, increasing out of the W-NW each day
across open terrain with gusts up to 25 mph in the typically
windier spots. Temperatures warm 2-5 degrees each day, so that
by Sunday lower elevations are straddling 100 degrees. The
combination of Sunday`s 100+ degree highs and warm temperatures
Sunday night could pose a heat risk for the Lower Treasure
Valley.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper level ridge will
continue to bring hot, dry, and breezy conditions on Monday,
with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. The pattern
will begin to shift on Tuesday as an upper level trough moves
south into the Northern Rockies. Ensemble blends favor slightly
cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry cold front
moves through. However, some models keep the trough further
north with little to no cooling from Monday. The system should
keep winds breezy into Tuesday. Precipitation associated with
the system is expected to remain north and east of our area,
with only a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across
the central ID mountains. Models disagree on the pattern
evolution after Wednesday, but favor troughing along the coast
late next week. While shower/thunderstorm chances currently are
low (<10% chance) at any given location and time, models hint at
enough moisture in southwest flow ahead of the trough for a
limited thunderstorm threat. This pattern should also allow
temperatures to rebound to around 5 degrees above normal by late
week.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....ST