634
FXUS65 KBOU 261016
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
416 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Only isolated late day mountain showers and thunderstorms on
  Sunday with dry conditions over the rest of the forecast area.

- Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day
  thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday
  through Friday. A few severe storms are possible on the plains
  with the highest threat on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Large scale subsidence will take hold today as the passing trough
axis shifts east and onto the Plains. This will put a halt to any
rain/snow showers that may be lingering across the north and
central mountains by late morning as conditions become
increasingly drier. Cross sections show an amplified mountain wave
signature that will be the culprit of enhanced winds for the
foothills and adjacent plains through the day. Gusts of 40 - 45
mph are possible for the normal wind prone areas in the foothills
of the Front Range mountains and Cheyenne Ridge.

Aside from the winds, it looks like the forecast area is in store
for another beautiful day as skies become increasingly clear
throughout the day and mostly clear skies are expected overnight.
Near normal temperatures are expected with ample sunshine to aid in
daytime temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s across the plains
and 50s and 60s for the mountains and foothills. With the lack of
cloud cover overnight, temps will be a few degrees colder than
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Monday looks like a quiet day with light northeast winds keeping
it stable and seasonal temperatures, just about perfect for
holiday activities. There will probably still be some shallow
weak convection creating clouds moving from the central mountains
eastward in the afternoon and evening, but the chance of any rain
will be pretty low. We lowered forecast lows Monday night a little
below guidance with clearing skies and light winds.

For Tuesday through Thursday, we`ll have the ridge axis passing
with light southwest flow gradually increasing each day. At the
surface winds will still be pretty light Tuesday but becoming
southeasterly, with a bit more wind Wednesday and a developing
surface low turning flow more easterly by Thursday. This will
bring low level moisture into eastern Colorado. There may be a dry
line on Wednesday, with the better moisture more likely to advect
west to the Front Range on Thursday. We may just get barely warm
enough for thunderstorms on Tuesday, then it will be warmer
Wednesday and Thursday. The flow aloft will still be pretty weak
Wednesday, but there may be enough CAPE for marginally severe hail
in the better moisture. On Thursday, the ingredients look to be
better and further west. For areas west of the Front Range, the
southwest flow aloft will be advecting warm and dry air overhead
so while it may be warm enough for a few storms the coverage and
intensity should be low.

There`s still a fair amount of discrepancy in the model ensembles
for the behavior of the trough that`s northwest of us in the
middle of the week, more spread the the last few operational runs
would indicate. Some runs don`t have much of a trough at all or
are slow enough that it doesn`t arrive until Saturday, while some
are strong enough to stabilize us. The NBM is a reasonable
compromise with 5-10 degrees of cooling and continued scattered
thunderstorm activity as deeper moisture, QG lift and a little
cooling aloft would offset the surface cooling in the intermediate
solutions. Northwest flow behind the trough Saturday could bring
drying, but there`s enough uncertainty to leave the NBM PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday/...
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Skies have begun clearing
behind the evening storms, and winds have transitioned to a
southwesterly component as expected for all airports. This is
expected to persist through the overnight hours.

Tomorrow morning, winds are expected to turn more west/northwest
by 15-17Z with daytime heating and mixing, and increased gusts
are expected to begin around the same time or shortly thereafter.
Gusts up to 26 kts are possible through the afternoon before
decreasing around 01Z. Dry and stable air will keep any shower or
storm development at bay for Sunday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bonner
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...Bonner