677
FXUS64 KBRO 072316 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
616 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Rain-free conditions and slightly above normal temperatures will
persist across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the
influence of the mid-level ridge. Surface high pressure centered
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain light southerly to
southeasterly flow, which will maintain dew points in the mid to
upper 70s. However, the mid-level ridge will weaken slightly and
will result in high temperatures around a degree or two lower than
Friday afternoon. This will result in heat indices ranging from 102
to 109 degrees Saturday afternoon, and while not quite as hot as
we`ve experienced, will still require anyone spending time outside
to practice heat safety.

Otherwise, tonight and Saturday night will remain mild with lows
falling into the mid 70s to around 81 degrees. Low stratus clouds
and patchy fog may develop across portions of the region as winds
become light and variable overnight, but should quickly dissipate by
early to mid morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

*Above normal high and low temperatures
*Very low rain chances

While not much changes with the mid-level ridge that will continue
to be the major player in the weather for Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley. A slight weakening with the mid-level ridge will
allow for some of the temperatures to decrease a bit, they are still
expected to remain above average. Another consequence of the
presence of the mid-level ridge will be the continued lack of
rainfall as well, thanks to the stable and dry middle and upper
atmosphere. Meanwhile, on the surface, the southeasterly flow will
continue for most of the long term forecast period but towards next
Friday, the surface winds are expected to become more easterly.
However, this southeasterly flow will continue to bring in more warm
humid air to the region.

As for the temperatures for the long term forecast period. Starting
the highs, mostly upper 90s along the coast and triple digits for
the rest of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley is going to
be the pattern. The weakening of the mid-level ridge that was
discussed before would only allow for a decrease of temperatures by a
degree or two. However, that could be possibly enough to keep the
area out of needing as many Heat Advisories. Mostly everyday in the
long term forecast period looks to be borderline in terms of needing
a Heat Advisory due heat indices being the the range of 109-114.
With Tuesday and Friday, being the least likely of the days that
will need a Heat Advisory at this current time. Thus a Special
Weather Statement could be sufficient enough to cover it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected to be the dominate flight category
tonight and Saturday as high pressure resides just to the
northeast of South Texas. Low probabilities of patches of MVFR
cigs and MVFR visibilities due to lower clouds and a mix of haze
or light fog respectively a few hours either side of sunrise.
Besides brief gustiness of 20-25 knots in wake of a late
afternoon seabreeze front, light east to southeast winds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Now through Saturday night...Favorable marine conditions expected
through the period with light east to southeast winds and low seas.
Haze may limit visibility at times, especially late at night or
early in the morning. Offshore streamer showers and storms may
increase beyond 20 nautical miles Saturday morning as winds turn
more southerly.

Sunday through Next Friday...Favorable conditions are expected to
persist through next Friday with light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  95  81  97 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN               75  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 77  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      81  87  82  89 /  10  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  92  80  94 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...59-GB