446
FXUS64 KBRO 081920
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
220 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The short term forecast, albeit remaining well above normal
temperature-wise, will be relatively quiet otherwise. A mid-level
ridge anchored over East Texas will shift east a bit, supporting
surface high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico. We may
see isolated convection fire up over the front range of the Sierra
Madre Oriental range to our west tonight, which is almost a
staple for this time of year, but not expecting that activity to
affect the CWA. What we will see is more sun than not, though both
low clouds and high clouds will make an appearance. Winds will
remain moderate out of the southeast. A weak sea breeze briefly
spiked heat index values to near heat advisory criteria near the
coast early this afternoon, and the same could occur on Sunday.

The NBM kicks high temperatures on Sunday up a couple of degrees
compared to today (to 103 degrees at Zapata) and, with dew points
from the upper 60s west to the lower and mid 70s near the coast,
heat index values will reach 105 to 110 degrees or slightly higher
for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Heat index readings of 111 or
112 degrees may occur briefly for the Mid/Upper Valley and
Brooks/Kenedy County ranches. Overnight low temperatures will
range from the mid 70s inland to near 80 degrees. Rip current risk
should remain low with the current forecast of low wave heights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Key Messages:

- Above normal temperatures and triple-digit heat indices
  continue

- Low chance (around 20% or less) of isolated showers and
  thunderstorms Monday and Monday night

Mid/upper level ridging will continue to influence weather
conditions across Deep South Texas through the long term period.
Limited precipitation chances will return Monday afternoon and
Monday night across the region as subsidence decreases with the
slight weakening of the mid/upper level ridge. An upper level
trough will track east of the Rockies, sending a weak cold front
across the state. As the weak boundary slowly tracks south through
the day and evening, isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop, but widespread rainfall is not expected
at this time. Low precipitation chances may continue into
Tuesday, but most guidance indicates the best potential will be
closer to the immediate coast and Gulf waters. High temperatures
will range from the mid 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to
around 101 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination
with the humidity, expect triple digit heat indices ranging from
100 to 110 degrees.

The mid/upper level ridge will build by Wednesday, bringing our
limited rain chances to an end for the rest of the week. A gradual
increase in high temperatures is expected each day, with most
areas along and west of I-69 likely reaching 100 degrees or higher
by Thursday afternoon. A Heat Advisory cannot be ruled out toward
the end of the week as heat indices approach 111-113 degrees each
afternoon as well. Regardless of any heat headlines, continue to
practice heat safety if spending time outdoors to reduce the
potential of heat-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions now at the TAF sites with scattered to broken low
clouds in the form of cumulus cloud streets. The morning sounding
showed 1.43 inches PWAT, enough to support a visible sea breeze
line, plus southeast winds are light to moderate. The sounding
also showed an inversion around 4 to 4.5 kft, and observed cloud
decks are indeed at about that height. That said, not expecting
much in the way of aviation concerns through tonight and Sunday
morning. Guidance suggests a bit more in the way of low clouds
tomorrow and perhaps slightly stronger southeast winds. Otherwise,
VFR for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Tonight through Sunday night...Gulf high pressure will support
ongoing moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas in the
short term.

Monday through Friday night...Generally favorable marine conditions
are expected over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as light to
moderate southeast winds and low seas prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  96  82  96 /   0  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               77  98  78  98 /   0  10   0  20
MCALLEN                 80 100  81  99 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         79 101  79  98 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  88 /   0  10  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  94  80  93 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...54-BHM