Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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663 FXUS64 KBRO 311738 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico looks to remain in place through the short term period. A shortwave moving through the northern periphery of the ridge will likely enhance forcing over eastern Texas this evening. Most guidance has the bulk of the forcing staying north of the BRO CWA, however the ECMWF continues to track the shortwave a bit further south, clipping the Northwestern portion of the CWA. Good surface moisture and plenty of CAPE could support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms if given sufficient forcing to overcome the modest CAP. For this reason, PoPs have been left at 15- 20% for portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg Counties this evening. Additionally, there is a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight over the northern portions of the coastal Gulf waters. Otherwise, rain chances are expected to remain near zero through the period. Heat remains the primary concern through the period, with heat indices expected to reach 112 degrees for portions of Deep South Texas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 1 PM to 7 PM for Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, Inland Willacy, and Inland Kenedy Counties. Heat indices are expected to top out between 105- 110 degrees for the remainder of Deep South Texas. A similar story looks likely Saturday, with heat indices topping out around 11-112 degrees again Saturday afternoon. This will likely require an additional heat advisory for Saturday. Lastly, moderate to fresh southeasterly winds along the coast are expected to build higher seas and increase Rip Current Risk through the period. A High Risk for rip currents are expected tonight and Saturday for area beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 500 mb high pressure initially centered over Mexico will gradually build north through the period, eventually becoming centered over west Texas. This will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA, with not even the risk for convection off of the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico. Meanwhile, a steady increase in daytime high temperatures is also anticipated. Although the combination of ambient air temperatures and relative humidity percentages will only support a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT on Sunday, a HEAT ADVISORY is likely to be needed for portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday through Thursday, with areal coverage of the HEAT ADVISORY likely to increase each day. Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a windy onshore flow through the period. The gradient may be intense enough such that a WIND ADVISORY may be needed over the immediate coastal counties (Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy) Sunday and maybe also on Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Radar and satellite imagery depict partly to mostly cloudy skies and a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms approaching from the mid Texas coast. SCT to BKN VFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon hours, with MVFR ceilings building in after 01-04Z from east to west tonight. Low ceilings will persist through around 12-14Z Saturday. Otherwise, breezy southeast winds with speeds around 10-18 knots and gusts up to 30-33 knots will prevail through the period. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Broad surface high pressure across the Northern Gulf and a strengthening surface low over Central Mexico will enhance pressure gradients along the Southern Texas Coast through the short term period. This will support moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas through the period. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM this afternoon for the Laguna Madre and coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through the remainder of the short term period, as winds and seas are expected to remain just below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. (Saturday Night through Thursday) Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas Coast through a majority of the period courtesy of thermal low pressure over Mexico interacting with high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions may improve to Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds farther west into the western Gulf of Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 95 83 96 82 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 79 98 80 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 99 81 100 81 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 80 101 80 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 88 83 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 81 93 81 / 10 10 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>254-353. High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...60 LONG TERM....66 AVIATION...22-Garcia