134
FXUS64 KBRO 042000
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Another breezy to windy and hot day across Deep South Texas, with
the subtropical ridge beginning to weaken through the short term
period. Expect winds to gradually diminish overnight and anchor a
little closer to the coast on Wednesday, but not nearly as windy.
Heat Advisories and an Excessive Heat Warning are in effect and
appear to be about on target, with the central inland county Heat
Indices reaching above 116 degrees this afternoon. Heat Advisories
will likely be needed overnight, with lows across the RGV
potentially 82-84 and Heat Indices of 92-99 overnight. And tomorrow
will need additional Advisories and Warnings.

In addition to the heat, SPC has nudges the Marginal Risk of severe
weather south into the brush country and northern ranchlands of
Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties. With the weakened ridge and a
stalling front across Central Texas, any development upstream or
along the Sierra Madre could get interesting on this side of the
border. Model soundings show steep lapse rates above 8.5 C/km and an
obscene amount of DCAPE, which would lean toward a damaging wind
threat. Obviously, large hail is usually always in the mix with
convection out in the brush country as well. One limiting factor
would be the lack of shear on this side of the border. Have kept
POPs around 15 percent from the brush country into the upper
valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An upper level ridge over the Western US will continue to be the
dominate feature for much of the period. Broad subsidence aloft
and southeasterly surface winds will continue to support mostly
sunny skies and warmer than average daytime temperatures through
the weekend. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday afternoon, and
again Monday afternoon. Heat indices are expected to peak just
below Heat Advisory criteria in the intervening days, likely
warranting Special Weather Statements.

While some cloud cover is expected to develop each night, it
looks to stay partly cloudy through the weekend. This will
facilitate better overnight cooling, allowing low temperatures to
drop into the mid to upper 70s.

Model guidance is showing an upper-level trough moving across the
Midwest early next week, support a weak cold front that could
work its way into Deep South Texas near the end of the period.
This system could bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, as
well as more seasonal temperatures. Disagreements in model
guidance and the tendency for cold fronts to stall further north
this time of year lead to high uncertainty in this part of the
forecast. For now, PoPs have been left at or below 15%, though
this may need to change as confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to give way to MVFR ceilings
this evening through tonight and into Wednesday morning. Breezy to
windy southeasterly winds are expected to gradually diminish this
evening into tonight. AWWs are in effect for both BRO and HRL for
occasional non-convective wind gusts to 35 kts through this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Increased southeasterly winds have
elevated seas across the coastal Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories
are in effect through tonight, and may be needed across the bay or
nearshore Gulf again on Wednesday. Otherwise, winds are expected to
decrease into Wednesday night, improving marine conditions toward
Small Craft Exercise Caution.

Thursday through next Tuesday...Broad high pressure over the
Northern Gulf looks to support light to moderate south easterly
winds and predominately moderate seas through the period. Winds
could occasionally warrant Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
headlines over the weekend, however Small Craft Advisories seem
unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             97  83  98  81 /  10   0  10  10
HARLINGEN              100  80 102  78 /  10   0  10  10
MCALLEN                102  82 104  81 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        104  80 106  79 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  89  83 /  10   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     96  81  97  81 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248-254-255-351-
     354-355.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ249>253-353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...56