347
FXUS61 KBTV 250504
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
104 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure building into the region this afternoon
will provide clear and cool conditions to the region tonight,
followed by a pleasant Saturday with near seasonal temperatures
and low humidity. A weak upper level disturbance will produce
scattered showers with some embedded thunder Saturday evening
through the overnight, but drier weather returns for Sunday.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Memorial Day,
especially in the afternoon, with cool and showery conditions
following for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EDT Saturday...Due to the odd low to mid level
cloud popping up across southern Vermont as well as a shield of
high clouds moving into the forecast area from the west early
this morning, have increased cloud cover in our forecast
slightly. Temperatures are falling slightly faster than forecast
due to the clear skies and should continue to fall despite high
clouds. Have made minor tweaks to hourly temps, but overnight
lows remain the same in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Previous
discussion below:

Previous discussion...After morning clouds associated with a
weak frontal passage exited the region, the remainder of the day
has been absolutely spectacular with mostly sunny skies,
temperatures in the 70s, and low humidity. High pressure
building into the region is responsible for this, and will
control the North Country and Vermont`s weather tonight through
much of Saturday. Gusty winds this afternoon will abate to
nearly calm overnight with skies trending clear setting the
stage for excellent radiational cooling. Lows will likely be
cooler than last night for most locations, and generally fall
into the 40s but some spot 30s are possible in the colder
hollows of the higher terrain. Temperatures on Saturday should
bump a little above seasonal normals with 925mb temps around
+15C supporting highs ranging through the 70s with upper 70s
possible in the wider valleys. Winds will be much lighter and
generally less than 10 mph.

Finally for Saturday night, a decaying shortwave trough exiting
east from the Great Lakes looks to bring a rising chance for
scattered to numerous showers and likely some embedded thunder
from the evening through the overnight hours. While surface
based CAPE will be at a minimum, CAMs show a few hundred J/kg of
elevated CAPE which supports some thunder, but nothing strong.
This could lead to some localized moderate rainfall, but overall
basin averaged QPF shouldn`t be more than a quarter to third of
an inch. Temps will be much milder than the previous night,
with clouds and precip keeping lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Fair weather is expected on Sunday
with decreasing clouds and increasing temperatures. High
temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 by the
afternoon. Sunday night will also be mainly dry, but some
increasing clouds towards Monday morning. During the second half
of the overnight will also have a chance for some showers with
warm air advection out ahead of next approaching system in the
Great Lakes region. Early minimum temperatures Sunday night will
generally range through the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Friday...Low pressure system will lift
northward through the Great Lakes area on Monday, and
precipitation will spread across our forecast area from west to
east associated with frontal passage on Monday. Have a slight
chance for thunderstorms included in the forecast as well.
Highest chance for precipitation will be during the overnight
hours Monday night, therefore instability will be limited due to
time of day. Upper level low pressure system will linger behind
departing surface low, and upper trough will move across our
region Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to continued chances for
showers and cool temperatures. Drier weather and a trend back
towards warmer temperatures is expected for Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Clear skies, calm winds, and radiational
cooling could allow for some ground fog or patchy fog early this
morning, particularly in the MSS and SLK area. However,
confidence in fog development and visibility restriction is
somewhat moderate to low due to particularly dry air above the
surface. Have gone with visibilities to 3 miles at MSS and SLK
with VCFG in the TAF. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected for
the next 24 hours. Light and variable to calm winds early this
morning will turn to some light northwesterly winds for most
later in the day today. Where applicable, topographically
influenced winds will dominate at times.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm