612
FXUS61 KBTV 240551
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
151 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will prevail across the region heading into
the weekend. Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return
towards the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 121 AM EDT Friday...Only minor adjustments were made and
limited to more closely matching temperature trends. The
observations over the last couple of hours were marginally
warmer than forecast, likely due to lingering light winds
keeping the surface layer mixed, so the thermal curve was
adjusted going forward to account for a later decoupling of
winds.

Previous Discussion...After a period of unseasonably warm and
fairly active weather, drier conditions will prevail across the
region in the wake of a surface cold front that pushed eastward
this morning. This afternoon into the evening will continue to
feature clear skies and sun. Heading into the overnight, the
quiet weather will continue with low temperatures in the 50s.

Friday is shaping up to be a beautiful day across the region,
featuring plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will warm into the
70s with a few spots in southern Vermont nearing 80, with dewpoints
in the 50s. A weak boundary will pass to the north, bringing a
slight chance for some showers near the international border,
although this feature looks to be moisture-starved. Friday night
will see some of the coolest overnight temperature we have seen in a
week or so, with lows dropping into the mid 40s to near 50, which is
normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into the weekend, dry weather is
generally expected, especially during the daylight hours where upper
level ridging will prevail. During Saturday night though, a weak
shortwave trough will traverse the area providing a chance for
showers will perhaps some embedded thunder with soundings showing a
little bit of elevated instability. All in all, it`s looking like a
pretty nice weekend with high temps in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and
low humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 356 PM EDT Thursday...Unfortunately, quiet weather won`t last
going into next week as a deep longwave trough looks to develop over
much of the eastern CONUS, with several potent shortwave troughs
digging through the forecast region. Memorial day begins dry, but as
low pressure over the Great Lakes deepens to around 990mb, shortwave
energy ahead of it will stream over the region on southwest flow
with showers and thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely in the
afternoon. Surface- based instability isn`t off the charts so
currently thinking thunderstorms will be more of the garden variety
and not strong, but this will be the best chance for thunder for the
week. Showery conditions follow for Tuesday with weak ridging
potentially drying things out for late Tuesday into early Wednesday,
but another more potent shortwave and stronger surface front arrives
Wednesday afternoon. While chances for thunder are more limited with
this system, it appears to be much colder behind the frontal passage
with the potential for some sub-40 degrees lows Wednesday night into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are anticipated to
continue over the next 24 hours. While there this the low to
moderate chance of fog developing in the Connecticut River
Valley this morning, nothing is expected to reach or affect the
TAF sites. Skies will be clear to mostly clear for the next 6
hours, then a cold front will bring a slight increase in clouds
from north to south 12Z Friday through 00Z Saturday. Any
potential cloud ceilings are not expected to fall below 7000
feet above ground level, and precipitation is not likely.
Clouds will clear out again 00-06Z Saturday.

Winds are sustained under 10 knots out of the southwest for all
sites except RUT, which is exhibiting its typical southeasterly
drainage flow this morning. Winds are forecast to pick up
around 12-15Z Friday with gusts up to 15-30 knots. With the cold
frontal passage, winds will be turning southwesterly to a more
northwesterly direction by 15-21Z Friday, with exact timing
highly dependent on the TAF site location. Finally, gusty winds
are expected to taper off around 23Z Friday - 00Z Saturday,
eventually becoming calm a few hours later. With a low level jet
overhead, best chance of LLWS is expected at BTV, PBG, and SLK
through 15Z Friday before winds pick up at the surface.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd/Kremer
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Storm