152
FXUS61 KBTV 240823
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
423 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions will continue through Saturday morning with
northerly breezes today. Unsettled weather and cooler
temperatures return towards the beginning of next week.
Currently, Monday appears to be the most active day with
potential for thunderstorms and periods of heavy rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...After yesterday`s frontal passage,
dry air returned to the region dropping humidity. Another front
is expected to drop out of the north today keeping winds breezy
with another round of dry air moving in. The combination of
winds and lower RH may increase fire weather concerns, but the
threat of fire spread will be limited to where fuels are dry.
It`s likely that there is a mix of wet/dry fuels across the
North Country since rain has been largely hit or miss over the
last several hot days; so caution is advised.

Otherwise, temperatures will be trending cooler today from the
recent heat with highs running mainly in the 70s. Clear skies
again tonight and a weakening pressure gradient will promote
more efficient cooling with lows mainly in the 40s to around 50
degrees. While chances are very low, some of the coldest
hollows could dip into the 30s and may have a little frost;
this would be only possible in typically colder spots in the
Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks.

For Saturday, temperatures will cool another degree or two for
the daytime highs keeping conditions feeling pleasant. Late in
the afternoon, rain chances begin to increase west to east as a
weak boundary tracks into the western reaches of northern New
York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Shower chances peak Saturday night as
a decaying boundary tracks west to east through the North
Country. Can`t rule out a stray rumble of thunder mainly across
northern New York late in the evening. QPF will be meager as the
parent low stacks barotropically in north-central Canada with
upper level support lifting north of the Canadian border; not a
recipe for strong forcing or heavy rainfall. Still a few
hundredths of an inch of rain are possible. Temperatures will be
mild overnight with lows likely in the 50s and warming into the
mid/upper 70s for Sunday; a few 80 degree temperatures are
possible in southern Vermont and portions of the Champlain
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 346 AM EDT Friday...Models have been favoring a more
potent system to move into the Northeast on Memorial Day
bringing chances of more widespread thunderstorms and
potentially heavy rainfall. Projections are for a digging
longwave trough to tap into some southern US moisture and
advecting it northward. Upper level support isn`t overly robust,
but low level jet signatures do warrant some consideration.
850mb jet is on the stronger side for this time of year with
50-60kts across model suites; PWATs are anomalous as well -
above 1.5" suggesting heavy rainfall should thunderstorms form.
Synoptic QPF signatures are not overly wet, but still could
contribute 0.5-1.25" of liquid depending on which model verifies
best. WPC has included the Northeast in a Marginal Risk for
flash flooding, or about a 5% chance. We`ll be keeping a tab on
Monday watching this system`s evolution.

Otherwise, conditions will likely remain unsettled with broad
longwave troughing highly favored to linger through much of next
week. This pattern supports cooling temperatures back to
seasonal averages in the upper 60s to low 70s with showers
possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions are anticipated to
continue over the next 24 hours. While there this the low to
moderate chance of fog developing in the Connecticut River
Valley this morning, nothing is expected to reach or affect the
TAF sites. Skies will be clear to mostly clear for the next 6
hours, then a cold front will bring a slight increase in clouds
from north to south 12Z Friday through 00Z Saturday. Any
potential cloud ceilings are not expected to fall below 7000
feet above ground level, and precipitation is not likely.
Clouds will clear out again 00-06Z Saturday.

Winds are sustained under 10 knots out of the southwest for all
sites except RUT, which is exhibiting its typical southeasterly
drainage flow this morning. Winds are forecast to pick up
around 12-15Z Friday with gusts up to 15-30 knots. With the cold
frontal passage, winds will be turning southwesterly to a more
northwesterly direction by 15-21Z Friday, with exact timing
highly dependent on the TAF site location. Finally, gusty winds
are expected to taper off around 23Z Friday - 00Z Saturday,
eventually becoming calm a few hours later. With a low level jet
overhead, best chance of LLWS is expected at BTV, PBG, and SLK
through 15Z Friday before winds pick up at the surface.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Storm