306
FXUS61 KBUF 071436
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1036 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler today with scattered to numerous showers and some
thunderstorms as an area of low pressure moves through the region.
Unsettle weather will persist into Saturday with chances for showers
mainly from the western Finger Lakes region into the North Country.
Dry weather returns areawide Sunday with high pressure building into
the Lower Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A moist cyclonic flow around a deep mid-level low will continue to
deliver unsettle weather across the Lower Lakes today. As mid-levels
cool aloft, to the tune of +6C to +7C, and support from channeled
shortwave energy we will `likely` see an uptick in showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon. In terms of sunshine...should be
fairly limited given the cooler air mass filtering in aloft. Any
amount of sunshine is likely to lead to more clouds and then storms.
As was previously noted...hi-res CAMs continues to hint that storms
will expand in coverage this afternoon (17Z to 21Z) and
potentially focus along a convergent boundary across the
Northtowns and then move east into Genesee Co. This will occur
in concert with the arrival of a slug of deeper moisture and
trough axis. Given the convective nature of the
storms...rainfall amount will vary greatly over any given
location, with up to 0.50 inches in the stronger storms.
Otherwise...it will become breezy today with wind gusts up to 35
mph.

Showers and any thunderstorms will slowly lessen in coverage this
evening. Looking aloft, temperatures at 850mb will be around +5C
tonight and based on KBUF sounding climatology this is near the 10th
percentile for June 8. In other words, a pretty chilly airmass for
this time of year in western and north central NY. The loss of
daytime heating will suppress the coverage of showers, however lake
enhanced rain showers will keep showers east of the Lakes with an
uptick in showers east of Lake Ontario late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend as a
longwave trough remains established across eastern North America. A
multitude of shortwaves will move through the mean northwest flow
aloft, which each bringing a period of enhanced ascent and deeper
moisture. The timing of these features is starting to become more
clear in model guidance for the weekend.

Saturday, a mid level trough and closed low will move east across
New England and away from the area. Lingering forcing and deep
moisture will continue in the morning east of Lake Ontario, and
will combine with westerly upslope flow and even some lake generated
instability to support more showers. The showers east of Lake
Ontario will gradually taper off and end through the day. Meanwhile
across Western NY, a brief period of subsidence and drying behind
the departing trough will bring mainly dry weather and even some
sunshine. Highs will reach the lower 70s for the lower elevations of
Western NY, with 60s for higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario.

Saturday night, another seasonably strong mid level closed
circulation will move from northwest Ontario to southern Quebec,
with DPVA and height falls spreading into the eastern Great Lakes
overnight. The forcing from the approaching trough will combine with
a strengthening upper level jet streak rounding the base of the
trough to bring a period of deep layer ascent to the eastern Great
Lakes. Model guidance continues to suggest a baroclinic wave will
peel off of a system over the central High Plains and partially
phase with the incoming trough, producing a period of widespread
showers and a few scattered thunderstorms Saturday night across much
of the region as the baroclinic wave enhances frontogenesis and
deformation.

Sunday through Sunday night, the organized area of rain from
Saturday night will exit early Sunday. Several additional shortwaves
will move trough the mean trough across the Great Lakes and New
England, bringing a few more rounds of at least scattered showers
Sunday through Sunday night. Modest diurnal instability will
contribute to shower chances Sunday, and modest lake instability
and upslope flow will contribute Sunday night. Temperatures will be
on the cool side, with highs in the mid to upper 60s in most
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The same general longwave pattern will remain in place across North
America through early next week, with an expansive ridge in the west
and a trough in the east. In fact, the trough in the east will reach
its deepest extent on Monday when 850MB temps drop to around +4C
across the eastern Great Lakes. The trough and associated forcing,
deeper moisture, and cool air aloft will continue to support showers
and cool temperatures through Monday night. Weak diurnal instability
will continue to enhance showers by day, with lake instability
enhancing showers by night.

By Tuesday, the trough will begin to deamplify and drift to along or
just off the east coast. Temperatures aloft are still quite cool,
and this may still support a few spotty showers, but with less
coverage than Monday. Tuesday night height rises will spread across
the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes ahead of another trough
digging into the upper Great Lakes. This will bring a brief
interlude of dry weather.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Wednesday and Thursday with the
handling of the next system. The 00Z GFS develops another closed low
over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes with increasing rain
chances. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF/GEM are much weaker and farther
north with this shortwave energy, keeping a weak open wave moving
through southern Canada. Given the model spread and weak look of the
ECMWF/GEM solutions, kept POPS low for Wednesday, in the 20-30
percent range.

A warming trend will develop by the middle of next week after a few
cool days, with above average temperatures returning.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mix of mainly MVFR/VFR conditions are expected today as scattered
to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms develop through this
afternoon. Any of the stronger cells may bring brief IFR conditions
to area terminals.

VFR conditions are expected this evening through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...VFR/MVFR with mainly daytime showers
likely with possible thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh southwest to west winds expected on both lakes today producing
modest chop. Small craft advisories and beach hazards are in place
on Lake Erie through Saturday. Small crafts on Lake Ontario for the
eastern portion of Lake Ontario today but will likely be expanded
west to cover the entire lake tonight through Saturday.

Winds relax Saturday night, before increasing again Sunday into
early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this
time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM
         EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/HSK
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...AR/HSK
MARINE...AR