995
FXUS61 KBUF 092343
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
743 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and cool temperatures will continue tonight
through Monday. High pressure will then build in, resulting in a
drying and warming trend through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Regional radars display a weakening trend to convection this evening
with the loss of daytime instability. These showers will also
decrease in coverage area from northwest to southeast across
interior WNY this evening as the mid level shortwave exits the
region. Overnight, additional weaker shortwaves, deepening moisture,
and even some lake induced instability will support a few more
scattered showers, increasing in coverage towards Monday morning.

A cool northwest flow with 850mb temperatures falling to +3C on
Monday will result in the coolest day of the recent stretch of
unsettled weather. Highs will mainly be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Cyclonic flow aloft will result in lots of cloud cover and
possibly a few showers although coverage will be limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As we move into Monday night any diurnally-driven shower activity
will fade out during the early evening with the loss of heating.
This same loss of diurnal influences and a continued sufficiently
cool (925 T`s lowering to around +6C) and moist cyclonic NW flow may
then support the development of some rare June lake effect/enhanced
showers southeast of Lake Ontario during the late evening and
overnight hours...though with some shear and a cap of only 3-5 kft
in place...any such activity will remain rather spotty and weak.
Otherwise a fair amount of lower clouds will linger...with the cool
airmass also supporting below average lows ranging from the lower-
mid 40s in our normal interior cool spots to around 50 near the
lakeshores.

On Tuesday surface-based ridging and drier air will build across our
region. Coupled with renewed diurnal influences...this will help to
bring about a quick demise to any spotty weak lake response
southeast of Lake Ontario during the morning. The incoming drier
airmass and daytime heating will also result in the lingering lower
clouds evolving into a SCT-BKN diurnal cumulus field...with the
coverage of the latter greatest inland from the lakeshores.
Otherwise it will be dry...with some gradual airmass modification
allowing highs to climb back into the mid to upper 60s...still below
normal for this time of year...but also not as cool as those of the
previous day.

The surface high will then crest directly across our region Tuesday
night...with its axis then only slowly drifting to a position just
to our southeast during Wednesday. This will result in fair dry
weather for this 24-hour period...along with partly cloudy to mainly
clear skies Tuesday night...and mostly sunny skies Wednesday. With
respect to temperatures...the overhead position of the surface ridge
will support good radiational cooling Tuesday night...allowing lows
to range from the mid 40s across the interior Southern Tier/North
Country to the lower 50s across the lake plains of western New York.
Warm advection/continued airmass modification will then allow highs
to finally climb back to normal or slightly above normal levels on
Wednesday...when most areas should see readings peak in the mid to
upper 70s.

Wednesday night the surface ridge will slide further east and off
the mid-Atlantic coastline...while a weak to modest shortwave trough
approaches our region from the northwest. Cannot rule out this
latter feature producing an isolated shower or two as it approaches
later Wednesday night...however conditions should remain largely
dry. With a deepening southwesterly flow of warmer air in place
between these two systems...lows Wednesday night will be much warmer
than those of the preceding three nights...with mins ranging from
the mid 50s across the interior to the lower 60s across the lake
plains of western New York.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region as an upper level
ridge builds across the Rockies late in the work week. A strong,
southerly flow will promote warm weather Thursday through Friday. An
area of low pressure is expected to track across northern Ontario
and Quebec Thursday through Friday with a cold front impacting the
region during this time. There is low confidence in the timing of
the front, however this should bring a period of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. An area of high pressure is expected to move into
the region this weekend with medium confidence of dry, fair
weather.

Temperatures will be near to around five degrees above normal for
Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS daytime convection continues to weaken and become
less widespread across interior NYS, with TAF sites returning to
VFR. This VFR flight conditions will hold through the first half of
tonight, but cool air advection aloft, and moist cyclonic flow a
deck of stratus clouds will expand across all airfields, likely in
the MVFR range, though some dips to IFR are possible towards
daybreak.

Scattered showers...in part aided by cool flow over the now warmer
lakes will become a little more numerous through the day tomorrow.
Will have VCSH in the KJHW and KART airfields tonight and tomorrow,
with a lower chance for showers at KBUF/KIAG and KROC with a
westerly flow. These scattered showers will diminish in coverage the
final hours of this TAF cycle, though a MVFR stratus deck will
linger through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday night...Returning to VFR.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will decrease on Lake Erie through the late evening
hours...though a longer period of moderate westerly winds on Lake
Ontario will continue small craft advisories through tomorrow
morning. Winds will be somewhat lower Monday, but still expect
choppy conditions on both lakes.

More favorable winds and waves for boating will return by the middle
of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ004.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ005>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/Thomas