Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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167 FXUS61 KBUF 221839 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 239 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms through this evening may be strong to severe with strong gusty winds, hail and heavy rain. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected Thursday into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cluster of convection along pre-frontal trough moving through western New York this afternoon with some damaging wind reports. Main axis of instability (SBCAPES 2000 J/kg) shifting inland from the lakes, focusing on central and southern New York. Axis of convection along the pre-frontal trough will shift eastward through the rest of the afternoon into the axis of higher instability. Shear profiles become increasingly favorable with approaching shortwave trough. The ongoing convection across western New York should become better organized as it shifts into the Finger Lakes and north central New York. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Additionally, with precipitable water values in the 1.50" to 2.00" range the potential for very heavy rain is likely. While flash flooding isn`t the main concern it can`t be ruled out. Second round of convection will move into the region along the approaching main surface cold front late this evening and overnight. The expectation is that with waning instability this round of convection should be less organized, but can`t completely rule out some isolated severe weather. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually exit to our east overnight with some showers linger into the first half of the Thursday morning, mainly for areas east of Lake Ontario. Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast as drier air moves into the region behind the departing cold front. A cooler, but still above normal day on Thursday with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 60s to upper 70s from the higher terrain to the lower elevations respectively. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather expected Thursday night as a ridge approaches with the region remaining in between synoptic systems on the north and southeast sides. Lows on Thursday night will dip down to the low to mid 50s across the entire area. Dry conditions continue Friday as the ridge axis continue to slowly build over the region. Temperatures will range from near 70 over the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario to the upper 70s and lower 80s for the lower elevations south of Lake Ontario. Friday night, the ridge will continue to slowly approach and cross the region. Behind the passing ridge, a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley will start to increase the potential for showers during the second half of the night. There is some timing uncertainty among guidance with the speed of the ridge crossing the region. Some models have the ridge moving through slower and showers not moving in until later in the day on Saturday, while other forecast guidance is a bit quicker with the showers moving into western New York a few hours before daybreak. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be a pattern shift into next week as an upper level trough deepens across the eastern Great Lakes region. This will bring a period of unsettled weather including the chance for showers and thunderstorms and cooler weather towards mid-week. Surface high pressure will lead to dry weather across the forecast area Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Sunday night and showers with the chance for thunderstorms will move into the region. An area of low pressure is forecast to track northwest of the forecast area Monday through Monday night. The best chance for rain will be Monday through Monday night as a cold front moves across the region. There is a risk of a few strong storms Monday, however confidence is low due to high uncertainty in evolution of this system. Confidence is higher that cooler air will move into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It will feel much cooler due to the recent warm stretch, however temperatures will be only a few degrees below normal. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday due to an upper low nearby. The best chance will be in the afternoon through early evening. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A pre-frontal trough will move through the region through early this evening keeping the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms may be strong to severe producing strong gusty winds, hail, and very heavy rain. With any of the showers or storms brief restrictions will be possible at area terminals. Showers and storms will continue into this evening and tonight as the cold front arrives and then works east through the area. Outlook... Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Modest south to southwest winds continue into this evening but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. That said...a cold front will approach from the west with showers and thunderstorms blossoming through this evening. Some of the stronger storms will have the potential to produce strong gusty winds and hail. With the frontal passage tonight showers and storms will diminish from west to east. After that...surface high pressure will build into the region for Thursday providing light winds and minimal wave action as we head towards the Memorial day weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR/TMA NEAR TERM...AR/SW/TMA SHORT TERM...SW/TMA LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...AR/TMA MARINE...AR/TMA