Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
483 FXUS61 KBUF 130807 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 407 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will move across the area today with a few periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. This front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Regional radar shows an area of showers approaching western NY this morning. Weak echos across the Finger Lakes region this morning may result in some sprinkles through daybreak. A mid-level ridge will flatten across the forecast area today. A cold front extends from low pressure over James Bay to Lower Michigan this morning. A warm front coincides with a nose of a 40kt low-level jet across eastern Michigan/southern Ontario. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move into western NY this morning. Hi-res guidance shows a higher chance of showers across the northern tier of western NY with a low chance closer to the Pennsylvania border. This area of showers will move into central and north central NY through midday. Daytime heating will increase surface instability behind the warm front and additional showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across western NY this afternoon. The warm front will move northward and showers and any thunderstorms will move into north central NY late this afternoon into this evening. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area today and southerly winds will become breezy especially across the Niagara Frontier. Overall, south winds will average 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph are possible across the Niagara Frontier with lesser magnitude elsewhere. Warm today with highs in the low to mid 70s across western NY to the mid to upper 60s east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures may reach the upper 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline, south of Buffalo. The warm front will lift north tonight and showers will taper off across the Saint Lawrence Valley overnight. Mostly dry conditions are expected for most of the night, however shower chances begin to increase across far western NY late tonight ahead of the approaching cold front. Lows will fall to the mid to upper 50s tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Nearly stationary frontal boundary located in the vicinity of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence River Tuesday morning. This frontal boundary will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday, as it sags slowly southward into the region during the day with the vast majority of the guidance having the boundary bisecting the area by the end of the day. Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but given the relative small shear vectors and an enhanced theta-e environment the potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. The frontal boundary will continue to drift to the south Tuesday night and Wednesday in response to the building high pressure system over Ontario. Precipitation chances, though lowering during this period will continue through Wednesday, before high pressure fills in across the Great Lakes. There could still be some lingering light showers Wednesday evening, but the overall trend will be fro continued drying with most of Wednesday night winding up being dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A progressive flow aloft will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this period. Thursday may end up dry, with low PWATS and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far enough westward into our eastern CWA. This western trough will push eastward, likely in the Friday to Saturday timeframe...with still a good deal of model spread to narrow down it`s passage. Behind the trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers to the North Country. Temperatures will average above normal, especially Friday ahead of the trough, and again on Sunday when a milder airmass begins to push northward. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. An area of mid-level clouds extends north-south across western NY and will continue to move east this morning. Regional radar shows showers just west of western NY with some weak echoes across the Finger Lakes region. Clearing and calm winds across far western NY may produce a brief period of MVFR/IFR at KJHW. A westerly low-level jet will strengthen across the region this morning. There will be a brief period of low-level wind shear prior to surface winds increasing this morning. A warm front will move across the region this afternoon. Showers will track across western NY this morning and east of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Another round of showers will develop across western NY behind the warm front this afternoon. A few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out and this activity will move northward into north central NY late this afternoon into this evening. VFR conditions will continue today, however low-end VFR will move into KART this afternoon. Any heavier showers or thunderstorms could produce a brief period of IFR but confidence is low of reaching a TAF site. Outlook... Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with the likelihood for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with showers, especially for southern and eastern portions of the area. Improving later Wednesday. Thursday...VFR. Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late. && .MARINE... Southwesterly winds will increase following the passage of a warm front today. Winds and waves will likely stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria, although it will become choppy at times. Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain well below Small Craft conditions with just some light chop at times through at least Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...HSK MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock