544
FXUS65 KBYZ 022017
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
217 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Today through Monday Night...

Several ripples of short wave energy continue to track across our
region in a W/SW mid level flow pattern. This will continue to
produce scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms through the
early evening before most of the activity dissipates...mainly over
our southern sections and mountains. Look for breezy conditions
in the foothills tonight with considerable high level cloudiness
over our area. This will keep lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s
overnight.

Ascent will increase thru the day Monday as the next wave
approaches. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected by
afternoon, with greatest coverage (50-90%) over the west sections
of the CWA while the southeast remains dry through the day. Models
suggest the cloud cover will keep instability limited to 200-500
J/KG, so thunderstorms will remain weak, but could produce
elevated wind gusts (40-50 mph) in our west by late afternoon.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 70s west to mid 80s east.

The risk of showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread
east and continue Monday evening as the upper short wave trough
tracks across northern Montana, pushing the associated cold front
east across the high plains. Look for numerous showers and weak
thunderstorms Monday evening, lingering in the east/southeast
sections late.

Subsidence quickly takes over behind the fast moving weather
system Monday night. Downslope flow with downward motion in our
west will lead to increasing wind in our foothills late Monday
night. 700mb winds increase into Tuesday. Local research tools and
NBM guidance indicate a 50-60% chance of wind gusts reaching at
least 60 mph in our foothills Tuesday. We have issued a high wind
watch from 3 AM Monday night until 9 PM Tuesday evening from
Judith Gap to Big Timber. For more information...please see the
extended discussion below. BT


Monday Night through Sunday...

A strong upper level jet will be moving over the region Tuesday
and Wednesday leading to strong winds both days. 700mb winds will
be in the 40-50kt range for locations over the plains and could
even approach 60kts for locations over the higher terrain near our
gap areas. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a dry downsloping
pattern leading to steep low level lapse rates in the 8-9C/km
range. This will create efficient mixing over the plains bringing
some of the high upper level winds to the surface. NBM is
currently giving most areas across the plains a 50-80% chance of
getting a wind gust over 40mph. Wednesday will see slightly lower
probabilities for most of the plains with the biggest threat
shifting more to the east where locations such as Fallon County
will have a 50-70% chance of getting a gust over 50mph. Winds
will be strongest in the western gap areas where the NBM is
showing a 60-80% chance of getting a gust over 60mph. Winds look
to die down significantly for these areas on Wednesday as
probabilities drop to 10-20%. Strong winds will be more persistent
in the gap areas during the overnight hours as these winds don`t
rely on daytime mixdown like the plains. A high wind watch has
been issued for these areas.

There is good ensemble agreement that the long term will be
dominated by ridging leading to a warm and dry pattern. Wednesday
and Thursday will see temperatures in the 70s before rising into
the 80s for most throughout the longterm. Torgerson


&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and weak isolated thunderstorms are expected
near the mountains and foothills...possibly extending east along
the MT/WY border region through early evening. A few of the
stronger cells may produce surface gusts to 40 mph. Mountains may
be obscured. Much of the activity should die off by 02Z with dry
conditions overnight. Overall, VFR will prevail over the next 24
hours. BT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/077 049/074 054/079 050/081 055/083 057/082 056/082
    13/T    70/N    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B    11/B
LVM 052/069 041/070 054/078 048/084 053/083 053/081 053/081
    18/T    70/N    00/N    00/U    11/B    12/T    12/T
HDN 053/081 048/075 052/079 047/082 052/086 056/084 055/084
    12/T    70/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
MLS 054/081 050/072 054/074 047/080 051/082 055/083 055/082
    12/T    61/N    00/N    00/U    00/U    10/U    11/U
4BQ 053/082 051/072 054/075 047/080 051/083 055/082 054/081
    11/B    41/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U
BHK 050/082 048/070 049/074 044/078 047/079 050/079 049/078
    12/T    51/N    00/N    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
SHR 050/080 045/073 049/078 046/081 051/084 053/082 053/081
    11/B    41/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    22/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Watch in effect from late Monday night through
      Tuesday evening FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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