Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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877 FXUS62 KCAE 030608 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 208 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This will support isolated to scattered convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal through the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... Satellite imagery shows a embedded short wave moving into the northern Midlands with a few thunderstorms developing in the Union, York and Chester County area moving eastward with additional showers extending into northern Aiken County. Convection continues to fight sunset and loss of heating however with the dynamics expect the showers to continue over the next couple of hours as they move to the northeast. Rainfall amounts will generally be light as convection is fairly low topped with most struggling to reach 20 kft. By midnight expect most of the convection to have dissipated with a few showers remaining where boundaries collide. Clouds will gradually diminish during the early morning hours however most locations will remain partly to mostly cloudy through daybreak. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of the forecast area. However PWAT values should still be around 1.5 inches supporting afternoon convection. Southerly or SE low level flow along the coast will allow a sea-breeze boundary to move inland through the day which may serve as the trigger for convection in eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating will allow the airmass to become conditionally unstable with sbCAPE values likely between 750 to 1500 J/kg. The threat of severe weather is low however. CAPE profiles are tall and skinny with low LI values indicating limited updraft strength. Warm air aloft moves into the area during the evening working to suppress convection along with loss of heating. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level ridging will be over the region from Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will work to induce a mid-level capping inversion hindering convective development. Convection on Tuesday should remain isolated to widely scattered despite a seasonal warm, moist airmass. Global ensemble mean 500mb heights flatten the ridge mid-week as an upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest. SW flow over the Southeast strengthens in response pushing PWAT values above 1.5 inches to possibly near 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop from the Ohio Valley southwest into the Mississippi valley on Thursday. Warm, moist advection ahead of the front will increase rainfall chances mid to late week when the front moves through the area. Above normal moisture, increased shear and moderate instability with shortwave activity poses some risk for severe weather from Wednesday to Friday. Drier air will move into the region behind the front for the end of the long term, but temperatures won`t cool much with highs still around normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Evening showers have all but dissipated with some lingering light showers in the Pee Dee region. Skies have generally cleared in areas without showers. Winds are generally light from the south and should remain so through sunrise before picking up from the southwest around 5 to 8 knots through the afternoon. Abundant low level moisture in place should yield a stratocumulus deck after sunrise around 4k-5kft. Weak upper ridging should help minimize afternoon convection but scattered showers and storms are expected, but not included in this forecast due to low confidence in impacts to terminals at this time. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$