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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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369 FXUS62 KCAE 290616 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 216 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s through early next week. Moisture is expected to return to the region this weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Morning analysis shows a deep upper low over the Great Lakes region with and upper ridge over the intermountain west. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to build into the region. Satellite imagery shows some lingering mid level clouds across the northern Midlands with some higher cirrus clouds passing overhead. A beautiful early summer day is expected with plenty of sunshine expected and lower humidity with dewpoints in the 50s. The upper trough axis will continue to drift eastward today and result in northwesterly 500mb-700mb flow. Atmospheric moisture is relatively low with ensemble mean PWATs around 50 percent of normal and dewpoints mixing out into the lower 50s through the afternoon. Forecast soundings confirm the significant dry air throughout the atmospheric column and show a strong subsidence inversion. High temperatures should be slightly cooler today compared to Tuesday but remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A reinforcing cold front will push south through the forecast area tonight bringing some cooler air to the region. Skies should be mostly clear with good radiational cooling expected and expect lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper level trough will be over the eastern US Thursday with high pressure gradually building in at the surface. Pwat values will be aob 0.75 inches with model soundings indicating a subsidence inversion. Northerly flow will also be continuing across the area as the center of the high moves through the Great Lakes which will advect additional cool air into the forecast area with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper level trough will finally be moving offshore Friday morning with high pressure moving from the central Great Lakes into the mid Atlantic and New England area late Friday. This will produce southerly flow and moisture return over the western and central Gulf States. This will continue through Saturday with moisture return beginning mainly in the northern CSRA and western Midlands. Pwats Saturday afternoon are expected to rise over 1 inch however with dry air remaining in the mid levels the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southernmost portions of the CSRA and far southwestern Midlands. Saturday night and Sunday the moisture plume will move further eastward as the high pressure slides offshore and the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The pattern becomes more active early next week with some short waves moving through the pattern and combining with the moisture to provide slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures through the long term will be slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period. A dry air mass continues to build into the region today with a secondary cool front pushing south through the Midlands tonight. No morning fog expected due to large dewpoint depressions from drier air with lower dewpoints. Light winds through sunrise should pick up from the west-northwest around 5 to 10 knots by late morning and some gusts to 15-18 knots possible during the afternoon. Skies should be mostly clear through the period with some scattered high clouds and mid afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$