929
FXUS62 KCAE 311803
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
203 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will be in control through Saturday bringing
cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure will move
offshore this weekend allowing moisture and above normal
temperatures to return to the region. This pattern typically
results diurnally driven, isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms which should continue through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure to our north continues to move toward the eastern
seaboard through tonight. Skies this afternoon are mostly clear to
partly cloudy with some cirrus streaming in from the northwest. A
potent shortwave continues to churn well to our west near ArkLaTex.
But, no need to worry about this in the near term, as the upper
level trough has moved offshore and ridging will move into the
region for the weekend. Northwest flow ahead of the ridge will
continue to usher in cooler than normal temps (highs in the low to
mid 80s this afternoon), and drier than normal dewpoints (PW values
30%-40% of normal). HREF mean cloud cover shows some mid-level
clouds possibly developing tonight which may disrupt ideal
radiational cooling, but time-height GFS/EC cross sections are only
showing some thin cirrus, so there is a little bit of uncertainty
here on how this will affect temperatures tonight. With that in
mind, still expect the cool temps should continue at least one more
night with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure moving offshore Saturday weak southerly flow
will develop over the Southeast. Despite some increase in
atmospheric moisture the highest PWAT values remain well west of
the forecast area. PWAT are likely to remain under 1 inch.
Model guidance shows a sea-breeze boundary working into the area
late day along with possibly a shortwave trough. However, dry
air and warm temperatures aloft will very likely prevent
rainfall. With a southerly component to the low level flow,
highs will be slightly warmer than the previous day, mainly in
the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be closer to normal
than the past few night with values in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday marks the start of a shift in the synoptic pattern with
zonal flow or weak ridging over the region and increasing
moisture. PWAT values rise above 1 inch as surface high pressure
moves further offshore and a deeper southerly flow develops.
This will also lead to warmer temperatures than during the week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. With the more zonal flow
pattern aloft we may see a shortwave work into the area. Near
normal atmospheric moisture and possible shortwave activity
could support isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. In general, the strongest vorticity advection
seems to stay west and north of the forecast area so widespread
convection seems unlikely.

Zonal flow is generally expected to persist into mid-week with
periodic shortwave activity pushing through the Southeast.
Atmospheric moisture remains near or slightly above normal
during this timeframe. This pattern of possible shortwave
activity and near normal atmospheric moisture should support
isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and evening.
Highs during the long term should be near or slightly above
normal. Global ensembles favor an upper level trough digging
into the eastern US mid to late next week. There are some
differences though between members as to the amplitude and
timing of the trough. This could allow a front to approach the
FA towards the end of the long term, but confidence is low given
the differences in ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure in control today with scattered thin high-level clouds
into this evening, then some mid-level clouds may filter in
overnight. SFC winds generally ELY/NELY 7-10 knots with gusts of 15
to 20 kts into this evening, decreasing to light and variable
overnight. Winds then becoming southeast 5-10 kts on Saturday with
SCT-BKN skies, though CIGS should remain VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
Saturday night. Low chance of restrictions late this weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$