Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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969 FXUS62 KCAE 302327 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 727 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure will be in control over the next couple of days then move off the coast this weekend. Mild afternoons with cooler than normal overnight temperatures are expected for a few more days. Surface high pressure will move offshore this weekend allowing moisture and above normal temperatures to return to the region through early next week. This will result in isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Dry airmass will remain across the forecast area overnight as high pressure moves north of the region. Light northwesterly winds this evening are expected to become nearly calm after sunset. Skies will be mostly clear, with only a few passing cirrus moving through overnight. For the most part, expecting good radiational cooling conditions, and low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry northerly flow into the area Friday before the trough moves well offshore by Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will build into the region Friday into early Saturday before moving off the coast late Saturday. In the short term, atmospheric moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Dew points are expected to be in the 40s each afternoon. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s, warming slightly for Saturday as southerly flow develops. Friday night should be cool with surface high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Radiational cooling under a mostly clear sky should allow temperatures to fall into the 50s for many areas. But radiational cooling conditions won`t be ideal with some light winds and potentially high clouds from upstream convection overnight. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will move offshore late this weekend allowing southerly flow to develop with moisture increasing Sunday into early next week. Global ensembles mean PWAT values show near or above normal atmospheric moisture for the duration of the long term. In general during this time frame expect zonal flow aloft or weak ridging. This pattern typically allows shortwaves to move across the forecast area. With PWAT values near or above normal, weak shortwave activity present in the region, and no prominent surface fronts this generally favors isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the long term. Although convection would generally develop in the afternoon shortwave activity could promote thunderstorms into the evening or overnight depending on their timing. As southerly flow develops late this weekend and strengthens into early next week, temperatures should rise to near or above normal for the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A few clouds are dissipating this evening with a loss of daytime heating and expect northerly winds to decrease, becoming light and variable tonight. With high pressure settling into the Mid Atlantic, winds will shift out of the NE Thursday between 5 to 10 knots. Some high clouds expected to pass over the terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend and into early next week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$