311
FXUS62 KCAE 281742
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
142 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as
high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 80s through early
next week. Moisture is expected to return to the region this
weekend leading to a chance of showers and thunderstorms into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad troughing across much the eastern US and a coupled surface
low over southeast Canada helped push through a front earlier
this morning. The front is now draped across the coastal plain
with subsequent northwesterly winds are kicking up across the
CSRA and Midlands this afternoon. As is common with summer-time
fronts in the Southeast, there really was not much of a thermal
gradient associated with the front but the moisture gradient
however will/is noticeable. Dew points across the Upstate have
fallen into the 50`s this afternoon, and despite fairly weak
advection, those lower dew points will steadily move into the
Midlands and CSRA this afternoon and evening; decent likelihood
this will be some of lower dew points we see until September
given climatology. Regardless, temps this afternoon will top out
right around 90 with some scattered cu for most parts of the
area. The lower dew points and clearing skies overnight will
help drop temps down into the low 60`s in most spots and likely
some spots hit the 50`s across the western and northern
Midlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough will be over the eastern US Wednesday and
Thursday with high pressure gradually building in at the
surface Wednesday and Thursday. Pwat values will be aob 0.75
inches with model soundings indicating a weak subsidence
inversion Wednesday which strengthens into Thursday. Northerly
flow will also be continuing across the area as the center of
the high moves through the Great Lakes which will advect
additional cool air into the forecast area with high
temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 80s to around 90 with low
to mid 80s Thursday. Low temperatures will be in the upper 50s
to low 60s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level trough will finally be moving offshore Friday
morning with high pressure moving from the central Great Lakes
into the mid Atlantic and New England area late Friday. This
will produce southerly flow and moisture return over the
western and central Gulf States. This will continue through
Saturday with moisture return beginning mainly in the northern
CSRA and western Midlands. Pwats Saturday afternoon are expected
to rise over 1 inch however with dry air remaining in the mid
levels the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be
confined to the southernmost portions of the CSRA and far
southwestern Midlands. Saturday night and Sunday the moisture
plume will move further eastward as the high pressure slides
offshore and the area comes under increasing southerly flow. The
pattern becomes more active early next week with some short
waves moving through the pattern and combining with the moisture
to provide slight chance to chance pops. Temperatures through
the long term will be slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Drier air continues to move into the region behind this
morning`s front, with gusty west to northwest winds up 20 knots
expected through much of the afternoon at all sites. A scattered
cu deck will still develop over central SC and eastern GA
despite the drier air. Skies clear out overnight and winds will
go light to calm. Gusty northwest winds expected again late
Wednesday morning through the afternoon. No fog or stratus
expected Wednesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$