344
FXUS62 KCAE 291837
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
237 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will build into the region this week keeping
skies mostly sunny and temperatures cooler than days past.
Moisture will increase over the Southeast this weekend resulting
in mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early
next week. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below
normal into the weekend then a warming early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A closed upper level low is positioned over the Ohio Valley,
with its associated broad upper level trough extending across
most of the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is in
place over the Rockies. At the surface, weak high pressure
continues to build into the region.

A very dry northwest flow aloft is in place across the area,
driving precipitable water values down to 0.7"-0.9" inches. With
the drier air aloft also comes lower humidity and dewpoints,
which should bottom out into the upper 40s and lower 50s this
afternoon, resulting in minimum relative humidity values of
25-30%. A few cumulus have developed with heating of the day,
and with forecast soundings showing a slight increase in mid
level moisture through the afternoon, the cloud cover could
increase a bit more resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures have risen a bit quicker than forecast, so a
few additional upward adjustments were made to the forecast to
account for this trend. Most areas should experience highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is above normal but still
slightly cooler than yesterday.

Tonight, a weak reinforcing cold front will drop across the
area, resulting in a northerly wind shift and possibly
preventing winds from fully decoupling in some areas. The
cumulus should dissipate by mid-evening with the loss of diurnal
heating, but a few high level clouds could persist through the
night. Good radiational cooling is still expected however, with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry NW
flow over the area through the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will move from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic
states ushering in dry air and cooler temperatures. Atmospheric
moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT
values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will be in the low to mid 80s, a few degrees below normal.
Friday night should be the coolest night with surface high
pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. Radiational
cooling under mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to
fall into the 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Global ensembles are in general agreement for the long term
showing the axis of an upper level trough moving offshore this
weekend. This will allow surface high pressure to also move
offshore ushering in southerly flow and increasing moisture
beginning Saturday night or Sunday. PWAT values will rise back
to normal by Sunday morning with near or above normal values
(1.4 to 1.8) likely for the remainder of the long term. In
general, ensembles favor zonal flow or weak ridging for Sunday
through early next week. This setup typically favors shortwave
troughs periodically moving across the area. Overall, near or
above normal atmospheric moisture with shortwave activity favors
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in
the afternoon to evening. At this time, there appears to be no
prominent surface features or strong shortwaves that would
support widespread rainfall. With southerly flow developing late
this weekend and possible ridging early next week, temperatures
should rise to near or above normal for the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period.

Weak high pressure is in place over the area, but a reinforcing
cold front should move southward across the area tonight.
Overall, the air mass is very dry. There are few-scattered
cumulus clouds this afternoon, but those should dissipate with
the loss of heating this evening, leaving just some high level
clouds through the night. Winds will generally be northwesterly
at 5-10 kt with some higher gusts through the afternoon. Winds
will become light overnight, but a northerly wind shift is
expected behind the front. Early morning fog/stratus is not
expected given the dry air in place at the surface.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$